Economic forecasters were surprised when 2019's first quarter GDP growth clip surpassed expectations,
hitting 3.2 percent in a report published late last month. Would the
April jobs numbers put a damper on things by underwhelming the markets?
Or might it achieve or even surpass the consensus estimate of 185,000
new jobs? This is a very big win for the US economy and workforce -- and it comes, as they so often say, "unexpectedly:"
APRIL JOBS DATA: +263K jobs added to US economy in April, smashing expectations
Women weren't the only beneficiaries of this very strong performance:
The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos in the U.S. labor force fell to a record low of 4.2% in April,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show. In
April, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up,
was 4.2%, down from 4.7% in March – breaking the record low of 4.3% set two months earlier in February. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.
Today's
new 3.6% unemployment rate should continue the past few years' terrific
trend where wages are finally growing at the bottom half - at a rate
even faster than the top half. This chart is from Goldman Sachs' recent
analysis of BLS data (h/t @JimPethokoukis) (1/2) pic.twitter.com/PQwG2kJDtv
The
unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent, beating analysts'
expectations of 3.8 percent. The labor force participation rate,
meanwhile, was little changed at 62.8 percent, from 63 percent the month
prior. Average hourly earnings – which investors were closely watching
for signs of inflation – rose by 6 cents to $27.77. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by about 3.2 percent...
We're
way past the "sugar high" many liberals shrugged off after the economy
grew significantly in the wake of the GOP-passed tax reform law (already
a vast departure from the doom and gloom many on the Left wrongly predicted). The more important question for 2020 -- with a clear majority
of voters pleased with President Trump's economic job performance -- is
whether this robust progress is sustainable. Some prognosticators seem to think that it is:
??
“We expect the unemployment rate to drop toward 3.0% next year,
bringing the unemployment rate to levels not reached since the 1950s. If
so, wage growth is likely to continue to firm over time.” - Barclays
I'll leave you with a reminder that one of the bogus talking points used by some to pooh-pooh these great numbers is totally bunk:
I
keep hearing people say "sure there's job growth, that's because we're
all holding multiple jobs". The reality is that 5% of workers hold
multiple jobs and that share has been stable.
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