The GOP's Must Do List Before The 2016 Election
Although Barack Obama won a second term and Democrats gained some
seats in Congress, the Republicans remain a considerable force to be
reckoned with in the 2013-14 election cycle and beyond.
Lost in the news media's ecstasy over Obama's victory in the midst
of a terribly weak, job-starved economy is the political reality behind
his narrow popular vote margin, the GOP's still muscular House majority
and its rising strength among the nation's governorships.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent out press
releases the day after the election that they had "succeeded last night
in rolling back the [GOP's] Tea Party wave of 2010. In fact, they had
defeated "only three members of the Tea Party Caucus," election tracker
Stuart Rothenberg noted in his post-election analysis.
The Democrats were making preposterous pre-election claims of
winning 25 seats and taking back the House, but they never came close.
In the '08 election, Obama's party gained 21 House seats. They gained
only eight this year, leaving the GOP in firm control of the people's
chamber.
Democrats had a net gain of two seats in the Senate,
winning all of the close tossup races in a year when the Republicans had
expected to at least tighten their margin in the upper body. Now,
Majority Leader Harry Reid rules the Senate with a 55 to 45 seat
majority.
This means that nothing passes the Senate without the hard-to-get 60-votes needed to take up any administration legislation.
But the really big, untold story on election night is that the
Republicans will be in control of 30 state houses next year. That's "the
highest number for either party in more than a decade," says the
Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and a sign of the GOP's continued
strength in the states.
Four of the five previous presidents before Obama were all
governors: Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush.
And now Republicans head
into 2013 with a long lineup of politically ambitious chief executives
who are eyeing the presidency, including Bobby Jindal of Louisiana,
Chris Christie of New Jersey, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, Mike Pence
of Indiana, Bob McDonnell of Virginia, John Kasich of Ohio, and Scott
Walker of Wisconsin, among several others.
The large pool of GOP governors, including many in the
largest electoral states -- Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio and Florida, among
others - means they will be able to rebuild stronger political ground
organizations for their party. And the new crop of Republican leaders
have begun talking about playing a stronger role in the GOP's political
future.
In his "Monday Fix" political column, Cillizza says that,
despite news media reports of the GOP's demise, "things aren't that bad
for Republicans."
As for the GOP's presumed electoral obstacles, he says "the
party is not that far, electorally speaking, from creating a credible
path back to 270 electoral votes."
Put the key Midwestern states of Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin into
the GOP column, and possibly add Pennsylvania, and the party's future
looks much more promising.
"No, this was not a blowout election for Democrats, but
the hardening of the party coalitions and the changing face of the
country -- and the electorate -- pose major problems for the Republican
Party," Rothenberg says in an analysis that sees a very "mixed message"
coming out of the 2012 contests.
Some are calling the results "a status quo election," and
that's what it has turned out to be. Congress remains as divided as it
was before, give or take a few seats. Obama stays in the White House,
but facing the same weakening economic and worsening fiscal problems he
said he would fix four years ago but didn't.
The Republican National Committee is now engaged in a
nationwide poll-and-focus-group examination into why the electorate
voted the way it did. But the answer to that question seems
self-evident. Obama received more votes than his Mitt Romney because of a
clearly superior voter turnout ground game in the electoral
battleground states.
But the reason's for Romney defeat run deeper than that.
Rothenberg points out that "white voters constituted only 72 percent
of the electorate this year, compared with 74 percent in 2008, a trend
that has been apparent for years and will continue. Hispanics, on the
other hand, inched up from 9 percent of the electorate in 2008 to 10
percent this year, and younger voters, age 18-29, continued their
unusually high rate of participation, constituting 19 percent of the
electorate this time, compared to 18 percent four years ago."
"For Republicans, the picture should be pretty clear. The
Democratic coalition is growing while the GOP base is shrinking.Just as
important, key Democratic constituencies seem less vulnerable to
defecting than do GOP-leaning groups."
Even in key red states that Romney carried comfortably,
there were numerous examples of ticket-splitting favoring the Democrats
in pivotal Senate contests.
In North Dakota, for instance, Romney carried the state
with a 21-point margin, but its voters sent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp to
the Senate.
Romney easily carried strongly Republican Indiana and
Missouri, but voters elected Democrats in senatorial races that were at
the top of the GOP's "vulnerable target" list.
It's should be clear by now that Republicans must find new
ways to reach out and appeal to a much larger base of voters. No
serious Republican candidate can afford to lose 70 percent-plus of the
Hispanic vote -- especially in battlegrounds like Florida, Colorado,
Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio -- and expect to win the presidency.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is already mounting a major
outreach program to make inroads among Hispanic voters who gave George
W. Bush 43 percent of their vote in 2004.
But Republican leaders also have to look at their voter
turnout operation which was woefully inadequate. On the GOP's list of
"things we must do" in the upcoming 2014 midterm elections and 2016
presidential contest, that one has to be at the top.