
Barack
Obama put on his statesman’s hat as he strode into the East Room of the
White House last week to implore House Republicans to enact amnesty for
millions of illegal aliens and massively increase the flow of new
immigrants and guest workers into the United States.
The president wanted everyone to know that his call for amnesty has
nothing to do with politics. Nothing. “I’m not running for office again.
I just believe this is the right thing to do,” Mr. Obama stated. But
even if it did have something to do with politics, the president hastily
added that doing so would be politically beneficial to Republicans.
President Obama is not the only one offering counsel to Republicans.
Ezra Klein, a Democratic leaning blogger for the Washington Post,
snarkily described Obama’s push for an amnesty bill as a “
devious plot
to destroy the Republican Party by increasing its vote share among
Hispanic,” adding that “most everyone agrees [passing such a bill] would
be good for the Republican Party.”
How could a party reeling from the fallout over the budget impasse
resist such altruistic advice from the leader of the other party and his
allies? Well, the ancient admonition, “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts,”
should come to mind, finds
a new analysis by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).
For one thing, the increased “share” of the Hispanic vote Klein
suggests (without evidence) the Republicans would realize from
supporting an amnesty bill might actually increase their aggregate vote
deficit. About
11 million Hispanics voted
in the 2012 elections (out of more than 20 million who were eligible),
meaning that Mitt Romney’s 27 percent share was 4.8 million votes fewer
than what President Obama received. At 20 million Hispanic voters, some
future Republican candidate would need to increase his/her share of
those votes to 38 percent, just to maintain the same 4.8 million vote
deficit.
Only one Republican presidential candidate, George W. Bush in 2004,
has reached that level of Hispanic voter support. Not even his father,
who was elected president just two years after major amnesty legislation
was enacted by a Republican-led Senate and signed by Ronald Reagan,
came anywhere close. Running against Michael Dukakis, arguably one of
the weakest presidential candidates the Democrats have ever nominated,
George H.W. Bush polled just 30 percent of Hispanic voters.
Similarly, John McCain, who was and remains a champion of amnesty for
illegal aliens, failed miserably among Hispanic voters in his 2008
presidential bid. McCain’s 31 percent tally was only marginally better
than what Romney received four years later.
Favoring or opposing amnesty for illegal aliens makes virtually no
difference to a candidate’s ability to win Hispanic votes. A September
2012 Fox News Latino poll of likely Hispanic voters found that only 6
percent of them rated immigration as the most important issue in
determining their votes. Far greater numbers cited the economy (48%),
health care (14%) and a host of other issues as being more important to
them.
The problem for Republicans is that on the issues that Hispanics
really do care about, they find the Democrats’ positions far more to
their liking. Hispanics tend to be
significantly poorer than the population as a whole and, not coincidentally, far more likely to
support big government.
Seventy-five percent of Hispanics in the U.S. want government to
provide more services and benefits, compared with only 19 percent who
want smaller government.
Those attitudes about the role of government cannot be ignored by
Republicans who cast themselves as the party lower taxes and smaller
government. Worse yet, first generation Hispanics, i.e. immigrants,
favor bigger government by an even wider, 81%-12% margin. In other
words, there is every rational reason to expect that if Republicans were
to support the amnesty and immigration increases being urged by the
president and others, their reward would be an even smaller slice of a
much bigger pie.
The Republican Party would have a better chance of repairing its
tarnished image with Hispanic voters and others by offering an
alternative vision for immigration reform. Such a vision would address
the core concerns of Hispanic and other voters about jobs and economic
opportunity.
Republicans would be better served by demanding that President Obama
enforce existing immigration laws, allowing the 20 million-plus
unemployed and underemployed Americans a shot at the jobs that already
exist. Instead of bending to business’s demands for more foreign labor,
they would serve their own political interests by opposing immigration
increases and allowing American workers a chance at upward mobility for a
change.
Sometimes good policy also makes good politics. It is now up to House Republicans to seize the opportunity.