Leading defense and national security expert Dr. James Carafano
tells Newsmax that the Obama administration has spent four years
ignoring North Korea and we now run the risk of an “accidental
escalation” of tensions in the region.
He also warns that North Korea does in fact have the technical capability of attacking the west coast of the United States.
See the video here:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/defense-expert-north-korea/2013/04/05/id/498089?s=al&promo_code=130D2-1
Dr. Carafano is the Heritage Foundation’s vice president for foreign and
defense policy studies and director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom
Davis Institute for International Studies. He is a former lieutenant
colonel in the U.S. Army and has taught at the U.S. Military Academy at
West Point. His books include “Private Sector, Public Wars: Contractors
in Combat - Afghanistan, Iraq, and Future Conflicts.”
North Korea has now moved missiles onto launchers and there has been
talk that they could technically strike the west coast of the U.S. Asked
if that is accurate, Carafano tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive
interview: “Absolutely. They haven’t done it but we know they have the
technical capability that allows them to do that and they don’t have to
reach that far.
“They can reach Guam, which is a major U.S. military base, and we
certainly know they can reach Japan, which is an ally and has bases.
More importantly: I was in the Army for 25 years, I was stationed in
Korea. Much of the South Korean population and the capital is in easy
range of North Korean artillery, let alone North Korean missiles.”
North Korea moved those missiles with full knowledge that the United
States would observe the actions because “we have satellite imagery
overhead covering the entire country” and “they know we’re watching.”
But as for what these developments mean, Carafano admits: “I can
absolutely tell you with 100 percent confidence that I have no idea what
this means. We’ve seen the North Koreans bluster and do nothing, we’ve
seen them bluster and do something. We’ve seen them say nothing and do
something.
“So we’ve seen every possible combination and we really don’t have good
intelligence on how the decision-making inside North Korea works, so
we’re all just guessing as to what might possibly happen.”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on Thursday night that President
Barack Obama was “pretty correct” in his response to North Korea.
Carafano agrees.
“It’s absolutely right that we send a very strong message to North Korea
that we would protect ourselves and our allies. So deploying the B-2
bomber was absolutely the right thing to do. The F-22 aircraft allows us
to get anywhere in North Korean air space. Missile defense systems,
missile direct radars, these are all exactly the right things to do to
demonstrate that we will defend ourselves.
“I find a great irony here. These are often the systems that
progressives want to cut and say we don’t need and are relics of the
Cold War, and yet what is the first thing we send out of the box to
demonstrate that we’re really serious about defending ourselves? The
very systems they don’t like.
“The other great irony here is the president’s getting ready to put out
his defense budget and if you run that defense budget out 10 years, I
doubt that we’ll be able to do these kinds of things 10 years from now
to demonstrate our resolve.
“But the United States has done the right thing by demonstrating that
they take these threats seriously. We’ve seen the North Koreans in the
past do some pretty unforgivable things, including sinking a South
Korean ship and artillery shelling South Korean territory.
“South Koreans have sent some pretty strong signals that they will
respond. But again you don’t know what the North Koreans are going to
do. You can’t’ discount that there might be some kind of accidental
escalation. We’ve done all the right things to prevent a conflict from
breaking out but there’s an old saying that in war, the enemy gets a
vote.”
Asked if this could end up becoming an accidental war, Carafano
responds: “If there was no such thing as accidental wars we wouldn’t
have them but we actually have them quite frequently. So it would be
irresponsible to say don’t worry, nothing’s going to happen, or to
predict World War III. The responsible thing to do is to take North
Korea seriously because they have the weapons to do serious damage.
“What really bothers me is that we’ve spent four years ignoring North
Korea and letting our defense atrophy and underselling and
underinvesting in things like missile defense. And now, all of a sudden,
we jump up and say, gee, we really need these things.
“This is what we typically do. We take these massive peace dividends and
then when an enemy rears his head, we sit there and say why weren’t we
better prepared? Sometimes it’s a 9/11 but sometimes it’s a wakeup call
like this.
“We don’t have to invade every country. We don’t have to be the world’s
policemen. But if we don’t demonstrate the resolve to defend ourselves
and have responsible defense budgets, someday the cupboard’s going to be
bare when the bad guys come knocking.”
As for what role China might play in the crisis, Carafano tells Newsmax:
“There’s a myth that the Chinese control North Korea or they can just
tell the North Koreans what to do. But the Chinese know they don’t and
we know they don’t.
“China has influence over North Korea but they cannot drive North Korean
behavior. They have a limited capacity to defuse this crisis and it’s
dumb and stupid for the United States to go kind of begging China to
help us because the Chinese can’t really do much for us.”
Commenting on the U.S. foreign policy pivot away from the Middle East
and onto Asia, Carafano says: “The declaration of the Asian pivot was
stupid. It was just stupid. The United States needs to be able to defend
all of its vital interests and we need to be able to walk and chew gum
at the same time.
“We have big interests in the Middle East that are under threat. We have
to protect them. And we have interests in Asia that we have to protect.
And where does Asia get its energy from? It gets it from the Middle
East. So Asia’s pivoting to the Middle East because they’re worried
about that.
“We can’t ignore that, as we can’t ignore our responsibilities in
partnering with Europeans. And we have responsibilities in the Western
Hemisphere. This notion that somehow we can leave things undefended is
great because it allows you to gut the defense budget, but the reality
is when you compromise your interests like that, you make war more, not
less likely.”
