The
most intriguing question about the latest GOP push on immigration is
one that no one seems to be asking: Why does the Republican Party seem
so determined to push immigration reform this year?
At first glance, it makes no sense whatsoever.
After all, because of Obamacare the electoral landscape is so
tilted towards the GOP that it looks likely we'll add seats in the House
and take the Senate back. With the filibuster as good as dead, why
wouldn't Republicans want to write a tough immigration bill on their
terms in 2015 and force Obama to either sign on to it or veto a bill
that the public supports?
Furthermore, Obama is illegally giving out work permits, refusing
to deport most captured illegals and he has illegitimately created a
DREAM ACT by fiat. This is a man who has made absolutely clear that he
has no intention of enforcing immigration law; so how do you make any
kind of deal that relies on his implementing even tougher rules?
Realistically, you don't. Until the immigration laws that are already on
the books are being enforced, talking about making new, tougher laws in
exchange for the carrot of legalized status or citizenship is a farce.
In addition, the Democrats’ policy on illegal immigration is
driven by one overriding goal: they want as many illegal immigrants as
possible in the United States so they can eventually turn them into
voters. If they can transform 10 million, 20 million, or 50 million
illegal immigrants into citizens, they'd be happy to do it because they
correctly believe the vast majority of them will be Democrat voters. How
could we possibly negotiate a good deal when the people who control the
White House AND the Senate think like that?
Of course, some Republicans claim that passing this deal would help the GOP with Hispanics. However, there's
very little evidence to support that assertion.
Ronald Reagan received 37% of the Hispanic vote
in 1984, signed an amnesty in 1986, and then in 1988, George H.W. Bush
got 30% of the Hispanic vote. Chances are, we wouldn’t even do that well
in 2016 since Presidents tend to get the credit for legislation that’s
signed on their watch. Who got credit for welfare reform and balancing
the budget in the nineties? Bill Clinton or the Republicans in Congress
who forced him to do it? Bill Clinton. Here’s an even better example:
Who got credit for the 1964 Civil Rights Act? LBJ, who was known to drop
the N-word from time to time or the Republicans in Congress who voted
for it in greater numbers percentage-wise than the Democrats? Lyndon
Johnson got all the credit.
If you don't believe me, take it from the biggest Republican advocate of amnesty in the Senate, John McCain.
"Let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform, I don't think it gains a single Hispanic voter." -- John McCain
Worse yet, if the GOP signs on to a legalization bill that falls
short of giving illegals citizenship, it's entirely possible that it
would work against us politically with Hispanics. The Democrats would
call it "racist," an "apartheid," and claim we are making illegals into
"second class citizens." In other words, passing the bill could hurt
the GOP in the short term with Hispanic voters and demographically flood
conservatism out of existence over the long term if the Republicans
cave yet again and give those illegals citizenship.
On top of all that, the bill that 14 Republicans signed onto in
the Senate would have been an absolute disaster if it had been passed by
the House. The bill legalized illegals on day one, put them on a path
to citizenship and gave the same Obama Administration that isn't
enforcing our laws today plenty of discretion in deciding how the law
would be enforced in the future. Even the CBO, which is constrained by
unrealistic rules in projecting the impact of laws said that the bill
would
"only reduce illegal immigration by about 25 percent a year."
Since enforcing the laws that are already on the books would do that,
there was absolutely no reason to believe the law would succeed. If
Republicans and Democrats collaborating together came up with a law that
bad, what makes anyone think the Republicans in the House could do any
better? John Boehner does two things well: cry and give in. Negotiation
isn't his strong suit.
So if politically it makes more sense for the GOP to wait until
2015 to take up immigration, we know the bill won't help the GOP with
Hispanics and we know the Democrats have no intention of honoring any
security provisions, then why bother? It's almost as if the House
Leadership in the GOP is willing to pay a big price to pass a bill, even
though they know it has no chance of working...and there's the big
secret.
There are a lot of businesses out there that want an endless
supply of cheap labor, which would be fine, except that they want
everyone else to pay for it. An illegal alien with no car insurance, no
health insurance, who claims he has 14 kids so he can get an earned
income tax credit can work cheaper than a law abiding American. So, when
the illegal crashes his car, you pay for it. When he gets sick, you pay
for it. Your taxes put his kids through school. Your taxes pay the
bills if he goes to jail. Your tax dollars go into his pocket when he
cheats on his taxes -- meanwhile, the Chamber of Commerce crowd makes so
much money off of these illegals that they can afford to donate some of
it to politicians like John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Lindsey
Graham and John McCain in order to get them to keep the gravy train
going.
Ironically, the reason they're so desperate to ram the bill
through this year is because the political landscape looks so favorable
to Republicans right now. Since the filibuster is essentially dead, if
the GOP adds seats in the House and takes over the Senate, suddenly the
GOP wouldn't be able to use, "It was the best deal Harry Reid and Nancy
Pelosi would sign off on" as an excuse for signing on to a terrible
bill. Additionally, both John McCain and Marco Rubio are up for
reelection in 2016 and could face strong primary challenges. That means
the two biggest advocates of amnesty in the Senate would both have to at
least pretend that they want to "
build the dang fence."
and stop illegal immigration in 2015. Moreover, no legitimate contender
for President on the Republican side is going to back an amnesty bill.
All of them would oppose a terrible bill because the primary voters
would insist on it. That means the GOP would either have to legitimately
deal with the issue in 2015, which Boehner, Ryan, Rubio, McCain,
Graham, etc. have no intention of doing, or they'd have to wait to see
what the landscape looks like in 2017.
In other words, this whole immigration push that the GOP
leadership in the House is embracing is a scam. It doesn't matter what
they tell you, what they promise or how good they make it sound;
immigration reform this year would be about as legitimate as a letter
from a Nigerian prince.