Op-ed:
The Convoluted Endgame That Is Syria
By: Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / Right Side Patriots on
American Political Radio
“
It's time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars.”
-
President
Trump, October 7, 2019
Over the past week and a half I have written two articles
concerning not only the ongoing situation in Syria but the players
involved. One article titled,
Leaving Allies Behind...or Are We? laid out the situation itself, the players involved, as
well as what I believe to be one possible reason why President Trump
pulled us out of Syria when he did. The second article titled,
The U.S. in Syria...Who's to Blame and Why, dealt directly with
who really got us involved in Syria, what our specific role in Syria
was, and I delved more deeply into the role our supposed allies
played. This newest article will show a chain of events that is
anything but pretty, but events that in the end might be for the best
and I'll start with the fact that the Republicans jumped the gun in
their taking action against President Trump and his (rightful)
withdrawal decision.
As soon as President Trump announced that our troops would be
withdrawn from the northeast quadrant of Syria, an area that butted
up against the southern border of Turkey...actually a
“buffer
zone” area between the two countries...all hell seemed to break
loose here at home. A civil war we should never have become involved
in saw the Democrats morphing said war into Trump's war as they and
some Republicans chastised him for overstepping what they considered
to be legal bounds by not consulting with Congress first before
supposedly leaving the Kurds behind. But what they forget is that the
Kurds are a people with their own agenda...an agenda we should not
now or ever be a part of...as in their wanting to secure for
themselves an autonomous homeland. And that should remain the Kurds
battle and should never be ours as we are not now nor must we ever
become nation builders.
But the reaction here at home was so animated in its condemnation
against our president...the very man
who knows that we should be protecting our own borders not someone
else's...that it led to a House resolution being passed
that formally rebuked President Trump for pulling us out of northern
Syria and for supposedly
abandoning
the Kurds.
Passed in a 354-60 vote, the
bipartisan resolution garnered support from all Democrats plus 129
Republicans, and was sponsored by House Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and the committee’s top Republican,
Rep. Michael McCaul (TX). Stating that the House "opposes
the decision to end certain United States efforts to prevent Turkish
military operations against Syrian Kurdish forces in Northeast
Syria," the
resolution also
called on Turkey to end its military action against the Kurds, for us
to continue protecting the Kurds, as well as for President Trump "to
present a clear and specific plan for the enduring defeat of
ISIS"...as
if ISIS' incursion into Syria was Trump's fault. What they should
have done was congratulate President Trump for cleaning up what was
and still is Obama's mess.
But politics being
what politics is would not and will not allow that, yet politics
comes into play even more so now as we just might be bearing witness
to a possible major Middle East geopolitical shift in power...a shift
that while it might seem damning on the surface in the end just might
work out in our favor. Let me explain.
We
all know, as I write this, that our military is now fast
tracking its plans for what will amount to an almost total withdrawal from Syria, and
that Russia is moving in. And in a way it's a good thing for like
I've stated many times before what's happening in Syria was and
remains a sovereign nation's civil war...especially it being a civil
war in a country that doesn't like us very much. And we also know
that the YPG Kurds fighting in Syria have not only called on Bashar
al-Assad for help in holding back the advancing Turkish forces now
crossing into Syria, but that they reached out to Russia as well. And
Russia...and Putin... are more than happy to help because with the
Kurds now on al-Assad's side, control of Syria shifts back into his
corner...a corner Russia is an integral part of...as well as Russia
now being added to the list of key Middle East players.
In other words Russia becomes the de facto winner as we rightfully
withdraw our troops from Syria with those troops now being deployed to western Iraq where they will conduct operations to (hopefully) prevent a resurgence of ISIS.
And this Russian win can be witnessed by al-Assad's government
forces now seeing the once U.S. allied Kurdish fighters becoming an
integral part of the Syrian army’s Fifth Corps...which is directly
under Russian command. In fact, over just the past week alone
al-Assad's forces have made more territorial gains than they did in
the past three years of fighting...and it's with Russian help of
course. And these gains include areas within Syria's northern
quadrant, not only the areas we withdrew from, but areas that are rich in oil
and agriculture...areas and resources desperately needed if Syria is
ever to be rebuilt.
And so with Russia now continuing to expand its military presence
in Syria...filling the place and positions of our withdrawing U.S.
forces...there's a chance that al-Assad could turn over Syria's Port of Tartus to Putin as a
“thank you” of sorts, after all
Tartus is a strategic port, a port al-Assad knows well that Putin not
only wants but needs as Russia has no port of its own on the Mediterranean Sea, whether said port be for military staging or for
simple commerce. And by his giving Putin what he has long coveted,
and by his staying in Putin's
“good graces” if
you will, Bashar
al-Assad knows that Tartus might just be the key to making sure
that Russia's military might helps him stay in power.
But is Tartus all that Vladimir Putin wants from Syria or is
Tartus just one part of his and Russia's bigger plan? Let's just say
that Tartus is the bottom rung on a ladder that sees Russian
involvement in Syria and the Middle East being even the more
important rungs on said ladder than most people think. How so? One
has to understand that back in 2015 when Russia first entered in
earnest into the Syrian fray, Syria's civil war was in full force
with Syrian casualties mounting up on all sides...on al-Assad's side,
the supposed rebels side, and most especially on the civilian
side...in addition to the refugee crisis getting to a point of it
being quite out of control. And while Putin knew that taking sides in
Syria had to be done with extreme caution, especially after the
nightmare fiasco that was Russia's incursion into Afghanistan, he
also knew that Syrian intervention could possibly translate into the
benefits outweighed the risks he and Russia would be taking.
And now it has...at least to some degree.
In fact, Vladimir Putin saw and still sees Syria as being his
chance to reset Russia's status as both a key Middle East player as
well as a true global power...second only to the United States that
is. And with Putin himself having no use for the likes of ISIS and
their ilk...something our two countries have in common...it can be
surmised that Putin hopes it will be he and Russia who will be the
ones to not only broker a political solution in regards to ending the
Syrian conflict...and know that Syria's civil war will end around a
conference table and not on the battlefield per se...but that he,
Russia, and al-Assad will be successful in keeping not only ISIS at
bay, but that he and Russia will also be the ones to broker an end to
the actual decades long fighting between Syria and Turkey. And this
specific fighting has gone basically unreported as its being buried,
news wise, under the Syrian civil war itself...the same civil war
that is now seeing al-Assad's Russian backed Syrian government troops
facing off against the supposed rebels of the opposition Free Syrian
Army...rebels who have now joined the still invading Turkish-led
forces... ceasefire be damned.
Also, with our withdrawal Russia will be given a chance to flex
its new political muscle by not only keeping ISIS at bay, but that
the world will now see Russia as being an able-bodied player in the
global war on terrorism as well as one who will reshape Middle East
policy hopefully for the better. A major publicity coup for Russia
I'd say...maybe even being a big enough publicity coup that it could
help change the negative publicity Russia received after their forced
takeover of Ukraine...at least negate it enough so that public
perception is toned down a bit.
But even as all the above stated unfolds there remains a downside
for Russia as well, and the downside comes in the guise of Iran, the
very country that just might try to instigate an even a bigger more
far reaching war by their playing all sides against the middle...as
in starting a war between Russia, Turkey, and Syria...with their
prize being total control of Syria, a country that shares a border
with Israel. And while Russia is aligned with Iran to some
degree...at least on the surface...that alignment is not written in
stone for Russia has many of the same conflictions with Iran as we
have...the prime one being the islamist nature of Iran itself. And
with Russia now also forming both closer economic ties and a stronger
relationship with Israel, the very country Iran wants wiped off the
map, that's something, I believe, neither Putin himself nor Russia as
a country would ever allow or take part in. In fact, I'll go as far
as to say that if Iran ever did attack Israel that Putin would join
together with those in Israel's corner. And Iran knows this, that's
why they've been quiet to some degree in regards to the recent
developments in Syria.
But being quiet does not mean that Iran is doing or planning
nothing or that they have not been in contact with Bashar al-Assad
himself, after all Iran knows well the animosity between Syria and
Israel, and that's something they can and will use to their advantage
unless Russia steps in to stop them. How will Iran do that...simply
by their aiding al-Assad in regards to Syria's shared border with
Israel. Again how so...by their implementing an operational line of
monetary and arms support running from Iraq into Lebanon via Syria in
order to supply their Lebanon-based, proxy militant group Hezbollah
with the arms and monies needed for them to become an even bigger
problem for Israel than they already are. And if they're an
increasing problem for Israel they will, in time, become a problem
for Putin and Russia as well.
So as it stands right now with our withdrawal from Syria well
underway, Vladimir Putin and Russia have become the de facto keepers
of Syria, and along with it they will inherit Syria's problems. And
problem number one could turn out to be the YPG Kurds who've said
they're given up their long held dream of having their own autonomous homeland after
they, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the Syrian government struck
a deal brokered by Russia to join forces together in the fight
against their common enemies, Turkey and the anything but Syrian
rebels. But I'm sure even Putin knows that those words uttered by the
Kurds were probably said with fingers crossed behind their backs as
dreams of having a homeland don't die that easily...they just sit and
simmer on the back burner until it's the right time for them to be
resurrected yet again.
But still with our withdrawal from Syria, and with U.S. military
personnel handing over positions in the northern Syrian city of
Manbij to incoming Russian forces, Russia has basically become the
new regional power in the convoluted game that is Syria. And with
Vladimir Putin warning Turkey...warning Recip Erdogan himself...that
he will stop Turkey from attacking Syrian troops after the U.S.
withdrawal is complete, hopefully can see Vladimir Putin...who is not
America's enemy as too many choose to believe...cleaning up the mess
of Obama's doing that President Trump was prevented by Democrats and
by Republican turncoats from seeing through to fruition.
And might I add that just before I was to go to press President Trump announced that conditions have been met between Turkey and the
YPG Kurd-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for what he called a
"permanent ceasefire" between the two sides, adding that he
is lifting sanctions on Turkey that were put in place following their
invasion of northern Syria. But will this now
"supposed permanent" ceasefire hold...we have until next Tuesday 6am to see if the YPG Kurds do pull back the required 20 miles from the border or if Syrian border guards and Russian military police...now being deployed to Syria's northeast border...will have to step back as Turkey would then resume its offensive. It's any one's guess, but in a land consumed by century's old hatreds I wouldn't put any money on a
"permanent ceasefire" holding.
Copyright @ 2019 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved.
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We
all know, as I write this, that our military is now fast
tracking its plans for what will amount to an almost total withdrawal from Syria, and
that Russia is moving in. And in a way it's a good thing for like
I've stated many times before what's happening in Syria was and
remains a sovereign nation's civil war...especially it being a civil
war in a country that doesn't like us very much. And we also know
that the YPG Kurds fighting in Syria have not only called on Bashar
al-Assad for help in holding back the advancing Turkish forces now
crossing into Syria, but that they reached out to Russia as well. And
Russia...and Putin... are more than happy to help because with the
Kurds now on al-Assad's side, control of Syria shifts back into his
corner...a corner Russia is an integral part of...as well as Russia
now being added to the list of key Middle East players.
But even as all the above stated unfolds there remains a downside
for Russia as well, and the downside comes in the guise of Iran, the
very country that just might try to instigate an even a bigger more
far reaching war by their playing all sides against the middle...as
in starting a war between Russia, Turkey, and Syria...with their
prize being total control of Syria, a country that shares a border
with Israel. And while Russia is aligned with Iran to some
degree...at least on the surface...that alignment is not written in
stone for Russia has many of the same conflictions with Iran as we
have...the prime one being the islamist nature of Iran itself. And
with Russia now also forming both closer economic ties and a stronger
relationship with Israel, the very country Iran wants wiped off the
map, that's something, I believe, neither Putin himself nor Russia as
a country would ever allow or take part in. In fact, I'll go as far
as to say that if Iran ever did attack Israel that Putin would join
together with those in Israel's corner. And Iran knows this, that's
why they've been quiet to some degree in regards to the recent
developments in Syria.
