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Monday, April 25, 2022
Simply, Vladimir Putin screwed up for Russia's president...and I use the word “president” figuratively not literally...never expected Ukraine to put up such a fight in the name of freedom, liberation, and self-determination nor did he ever expect to see NATO stand united behind a country that's not even a NATO member.
And in his thinking that Ukraine would cower in fear and quickly surrender when up against the Russian army, what Putin forgot when planning his war was the cardinal rule that elections do indeed have consequences. And in the case of Ukraine those consequences can be summed up in two words, Volodymyr Zelensky, a leader the West has not seen since the days of Ronald Reagan. And while President Trump saw no new wars happening on his watch courtesy of his rightful “America First” policies, it was Reagan alone who had the courage to publicly demand that then Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev “tear down this wall”...in reference to the Berlin Wall separating the then two Germany's.
And how do we know this? As more and more Russians learn the truth about Putin's war and the atrocities being committed against innocent Ukrainian civilians; and as they themselves are becoming economic victims of a war Putin still claims is being perpetrated in their name; Russians are fighting back against Putin and his self appointed hierarchy via once unheard of, let alone seen, anti-war protests in Russia's streets. Now willing to risk arrest, imprisonment, and even death in support of their Ukrainian “brothers and sisters,” if you will, as well as in an effort to try and oust the man who sees the past as Russia's future, we also know that some Russian troops deployed in Ukraine are refusing to fight against a people and a country they have no qualms with.
And yet while Ukraine and her people are paying an overwhelming physical price in both “blood and treasure,” Zelensky's forces, comprised mostly of self-organizing and self-mobilized volunteers, are holding strong, thus leaving what Putin hoped would be but a 5-day easily won war, to face the chaos of war itself empowering Ukraine and not Russia. So while the Russian army is forced to fight on, the Russian people are truly growing weary of war especially now that Russian forces have begun attacking Ukraine's entire eastern front after Ukrainian troops in Mariupol, last Sunday, rejected Putin’s ultimatum that they surrender or face “total destruction.”
And to that end the question remains, will Vladimir Putin and his generals ever be tried for war crimes let alone be convicted of said crimes? And here being the only time I have ever agreed with Joe Biden on anything, we see his “mop-up team” continuing to quell Biden's words that he believes, as do I, that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal. And while the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in the Hague (the ICC) recently stated that an investigation into “possible” war crimes being committed in Ukraine is on the table, and that evidence is being gathered to try and bring the perpetrators to justice, the fact remains that proving war crimes took place in Ukraine is not as cut and dry as it seems.
“The expectation for prosecuting someone for war crimes and crimes against humanity is to be able to demonstrate individual responsibility and be able to demonstrate that they are directing or responsible for a policy of committing these crimes. And that can be very difficult, especially when you don't have the cooperation of the state from which that kind that person originates, which we would obviously not have in the case of Russia.”
These are the words of Marti Flacks, director of the “Center for Strategic and International Studies Human Rights Initiative,” who recently stated that prosecutors need three things to hold perpetrators of war crimes accountable. First, evidence must be presented showing that serious international crimes have taken place; second, that a venue with a jurisdiction to try the crimes can be secured; and third, that identification of defendants must occur, as in an individual or individuals must be named as the ICC does not and will not try states. In other words, Vladimir Putin himself would carry the full brunt of any charges levied while Russia along with her military would not charged.as in but not limited to “genocide” and/or “crimes against humanity”...and with a needed trial venue being fairly easy to secure...it's the third criteria that could take years to happen for naming Putin as the defendant could lead to serious ramifications. How so...because it would involve Mother Russia herself...as in the Russian people or even the military...turning on and turning in Vladimir Putin for trial, something I'm not sure the Russian people, the military, let alone those in the Russian government are ready to do just yet.
Simply, for Russia to arrest and then surrender Putin to ICC prosecutors would most likely take a new Russian Revolution of sorts...an actual regime change not unlike the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. Not an easy task to accomplish, especially while the war is still ongoing, never mind the fact that many in Russia's military still hold a strong personal allegiance to Putin and would put down even a mere musing of revolution. And remember, Putin himself must be present at trial as the ICC also does not and will not try individuals in “absentia.”which explains both the circumstances and severity of where the alleged crimes were committed...has already been partially cataloged; and yet Vladimir Putin still holds the world in the grip of fear of both nuclear and chemical weapons. And this is especially true after last Wednesday's announcement by Russia’s Defense Ministry that it had conducted the first test launch of its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile...a nuclear weapon that Putin claims will "provide food for thought for those who try to threaten our country."
Remember, a trial of this magnitude would drag on for years before any verdict is reached. And how do we know this...because the ICC case regarding the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea is still ongoing. Now if only our government would turn over what it has on both Ukraine and Putin...information that surely would help the prosecution...maybe then Vladimir Putin would be brought to justice. But with Biden in the White House and with Obama pulling his strings, we know that will never happen and for obvious reasons. Sadly, case closed.
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