Crowds vs. Polls: Predicting the 2016 Election FIXTHISNATION.com
If so Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. For the duration of his campaign, both in the primaries and in the general, Trump has drawn record crowds everywhere he goes. In the primaries, the only man sharing his populist appeal was Sen. Bernie Sanders, who led a progressive revolt on the DNC establishment just as Trump was doing the same thing within the Republican Party.
For Hillary Clinton, it’s been a much different story. Among her voting base, as many people are planning to cast a ballot against Trump as they are for Hillary. They will be marching to the polls out of grim obligation in November, if they march at all. Certainly, they haven’t bothered to show up for her campaign events. As Fox News reported on Friday, one look at a Hillary Clinton “rally” is enough to make a Democrat reach for the antidepressants:
It was another day out on the campaign trail with Hillary Clinton, and another event held in a small room, in front of a small crowd.
Supporters and media alike crowded Wednesday into a community center gym in Orange County, Fla., a critical battleground in what is arguably a must-have state for any presidential nominee, to hear the Democratic nominee speak. Campaign officials estimated “about 500” people in attendance, and “another 500” in an overflow room – though Fox News counted only about 300 in the gym, and the pool report pegged the overflow crowd at “about a hundred.”
That same day, Republican opponent Donald Trump was packing a theater in Toledo, Ohio, with an estimated 2,700 people.If that sounds bad, consider this: For Trump, 2,700 is a moderate turnout at best. For Hillary, a packed 500-seat auditorium (if that was indeed the case) is a step up from her usual numbers. If you go by crowd size and ignore the polls, you would think President Donald Trump was an inevitability