What Will Happen...An Educated Guess

Op-ed:

What Will Happen...An Educated Guess

By: Diane Sori and Craig Andresen / Right Side Patriots

 

Will there or won't there be war what with Russian troops still amassing at Ukraine's border...a war not just between Ukraine and Russia but a war also between a “statist” vs. a man so “blind to the truth” that he's willing to risk our country getting involved in yet another foreign war. And this is something we surely don't need especially after having recently lost such a war due to this one man's ineptitude and incompetence.

Joe Biden vs. Russian President Vladimir Putin, a man who while having all the outward trappings of a communist is actually a “statist”...a “nationalist”...a man not so unlike President Donald Trump who put America first above all else. Remember, Putin is not trying to rebuild the old Soviet Union, he knows better than to attempt that, but is a man trying to resurrect the grandeur and importance that was once “Mother Russia”... a “statist's” goal if ever there was one. And he's doing so at the expense of a weak and feeble-minded U.S. president by using the threat that if his now called for demands cannot be resolved diplomatically that he will resort to what would be a sustained and bloody military action.

Brave but challenging words for sure...words that see the world bearing witness to Russian troops currently amassing at the Ukrainian/Russian border, but to date as we write this, those troops have not crossed even one inch onto Ukrainian soil nor have they gathered in what is an all-important “battle formation.” These troops are sitting and waiting for orders that might or might never come...armed troops being but the key visual component broadcast to the world in a cleverly crafted public show of force...a show of force which now includes a Russian missile cruiser and a frigate carrying a specially equipped helicopter practicing ways of locating submarines, something not unexpected as it's typical of both Russian war games and routinely practiced military exercises.

 

Simply, it's our opinion, that this is political posturing at its best and is being used solely as a bargaining chip, so to speak, to give added strength to Putin's list of so-called “security demands”...or what he referred to as a “proposed treaty.” Sent to a high ranking U.S. diplomat stationed in Moscow back in early December 2021... this "treaty" called for, amongst numerous other things, that Ukraine never be granted membership in NATO (something they do want); a legally-binding “security agreement” that NATO will not expand its military infrastructure nor its alliances eastward; the removing of NATO troops and bases from all former Soviet Union territory; as well as the ending of Western military assistance to Ukraine including a ban on intermediate-range missiles being in Europe especially since an alliance of Ukraine with NATO could allow Ukraine to become a launchpad for NATO missiles to target and strike Russia.

And honestly, Putin does have some credence here for if Ukraine were to become part of NATO two opposing forces would then be sitting right on each others doorstep...we wouldn't like it if we were faced with such a scenario so logic alone dictates that Russia...that Putin...wouldn't like it either.

Simply, Putin is jockeying for control of Ukraine not for its territory per se nor as means to end the country's in-fighting but primarily to use as a barrier against NATO's western expansion. And it's expansion that since the Cold War ended has seen NATO expanded eastwards with 14 new countries becoming members, including countries that were once part of the old Soviet Union... a very bitter pill that Putin and Russia have been forced to swallow.

And know that Vladimir Putin, while a U.S. adversary, is a smart man as well as being an expert tactician and realist, and he knows well that his actually taking over Ukraine would mean sending even more troops to the border. And he also knows that NATO's members have made it clear that while they are sending weapons to Ukraine and will continue to do so, that they will not be party to actual fighting in Ukraine. Also, Putin knows well that we have but four brigades in Europe and that Europe herself, including Great Britain, has but two or three at the most, which is not nearly enough to defeat the Russian army if it came to an all out ground war...a war Putin himself does not want for the blood being shed if such a war were to take place would be both catastrophic in nature to both sides and accomplish nothing in the end.

And to that affect, we believe that what Vladimir Putin is now doing is simply showing the world that he will protect Russia, her interests, and her citizens if need be. But protect them from what exactly? To understand that one must understand Russian/Ukrainian history...a history that is convoluted at best as both Russia and Ukraine actually claim the same heritage...a heritage originating from what's called “the Rus”...where in the 10th century several tribes and clans of different ethnicities united together and became one under the Byzantine church. Simply, Russians and Ukrainians have essentially become one and the same people, yet they are divided by both language and politics.

In fact, albeit very briefly, Ukrainian volunteers fought rebels in the Moscow-aligned Donbass region, a region that rose up against the central government in Kyiv citing in part its “violation” of their right to speak Russian. And this fighting came to a head in 2014, when after months of what turned into deadly protests between Russian and Ukranian speakers led to the toppling of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government. And it was this event that led to the Minsk Protocol...an agreement which sought to end the war in the Dunbass region via an immediate cease fire and decentralization of power...which in turn, if it had been successful, would hopefully have led to Russia's de-annexation of Crimea. Remember, Russian control over Crimea, wanted primarily but not solely for its strategic value, was also established in 2014, with Crimea being administered as part of the Russian Federation, that is except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash which are still controlled by Ukraine.

The Minsk Protocol itself was crafted by the “Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine”...as in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the so-called “Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe” (OSCE)...and was brokered by leaders of France and Germany in what was called the “Normandy Format.” And while this agreement failed to stop the fighting, as did a second go-round known as Minsk II, the stage had been set for Ukraine to remain a permanent point of contention for Russia, whose focus has now shifted to Ukraine officially becoming once again an integral and accepted part of “Mother Russia,” as in the “Russian Federation.”

So by now it should be obvious that Ukraine, to Putin, is the prize that would help restore Russia's former glory...while to Biden, Ukraine is where yet another weakness in his administration's foreign policy objectives is easily seen.

If there is one thing that Vladimir Putin is not it’s a coward, and if there’s one thing Vladimir Putin has it’s a backbone. None of the rhetoric coming from those in Washington means anything to Putin and in fact, if you listen carefully, you can hear the Kremlin laughing.

Biden, a spineless coward, has now promised severe sanctions against Russia should Putin move militarily against Ukraine, but as is always the case with Biden it is nothing but mindless blather. Putin is willing to listen not because he fears such sanctions but because he’s keenly interested in Biden’s plan so that he can line up his own counter-measures. Remember during the 2020 campaign when Biden said in a debate that he has stood up to Putin in the past? One can only assume that he was speaking about the sanctions put on Russia when Biden was the Vice President in 2014.

Those sanctions were, at best, laughable. The Obama/Biden administration sanctioned several “low hanging fruit” entities such as smaller Russian banks, low-level military officials and a handful of non-essential diplomats. It was a joke and Putin didn’t for a moment consider getting out of Crimea either because of the threat of sanctions or the implementation of sanctions. This time around Biden is threatening major sanctions which could include Russia’s financial system and sectors deemed critical to the Kremlin. Biden is threatening “severe consequences” should Putin launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Note that the “severe consequences” come if Putin launches a “full scale” invasion against Ukraine, but Biden has already given a wink and a nod to a “minor incursion.”

Among the sanctions being considered against Russia are export control measures that could halt Russia's ability to import smartphones and key aircraft and automobile electronic parts. Biden is also considering banning exports to Russia of microelectronics and computer chips designed either using U.S. software or produced using U.S. equipment. And let’s be clear on these proposed sanctions, there is nothing on that list that Russia couldn’t obtain from their allies like China as Russia’s economic system can withstand the financial sector sanctions easily, and Putin knows full-well that imposing the tech sanctions will, in fact, hurt the U.S. far more than they would affect Russia.

That leaves oil, and that too is nothing but rhetoric when one examines the truth of the matter.

Russia has a proven 80 billion barrel reserve of oil on hand. Russia is a major oil and gas producer. In fact, they have the largest reserves of natural gas on earth and they’re the largest exporter of it. Russia also has the sixth largest oil reserves, and is one of the largest producers of oil. Most people don’t know it but last year Russia’s oil output was up 2.4 percent to 10.52 million barrels per day. This year, Russia expects to produce 10.84-11.05 million barrels per day. But Biden is threatening to take away Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline should a full-scale invasion be launched against Ukraine. Should that make Putin think twice?

In a word…no…and here’s why. That pipeline, the Nord Stream 2, isn’t even operational yet. Russia isn’t getting one single drop out of that pipeline. Do you really think Putin is worried about losing a pipeline that isn’t even built yet? Of course not, and especially when one considers how much oil Russia is already producing as mentioned above. Obviously, threatening the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is nothing but mindless blather from Biden and just as obviously Putin isn’t concerned by it, but what of other threatened energy sanctions against Russia?

Threats from Biden regarding restricting the financing of new gas exploration and production in the country as well as extending existing bans on the transfer of technology in the energy sector would be counter productive to the U.S. and our European allies, and Putin knows it. Russia’s big oil production company, Rosneft Oil Co., is roughly 20 percent owned by British Petroleum. Shell and Exxon Mobil Corp. are both drilling for oil and natural gas in the eastern part of Russia near Sakhalin Island, and the UK’s Glencore Corp. trades in Russian metal and oil.

Sanction what Biden is threatening to sanction and the ripple effect will harm U.S. and European ally’s efforts and energy flow causing prices in our country and theirs to necessarily rise even higher than prices are projected to rise this summer.

Should Biden impose such energy sanctions against Russia don’t be one bit surprised if Putin, in a tit-for-tat reprisal, orders Shell, Exxon Mobil, and possibly BP out of eastern Russia and takes control of those operations thus increasing Russian oil and gas production while also increasing exports. Now you can easily understand why the threatened economic sanctions are pretty much meaningless to Putin.

Putin wants Ukraine not just for strategic, sentimental or land acquisition reasons, but also for the natural resources available in Ukraine. While neither oil nor natural gas are high on the list for Putin, it’s the abundance of other natural resources such as coal, iron ore, manganese, salt, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury that Putin wants...resources which will surely add to Russia’s manufacturing capabilities while adding money to Russia’s economy in the process.

This is yet another reason why we don’t believe a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is something Putin wants or intends to undertake. Why would he devastate Ukraine and make it that much harder and that much more expensive to rebuild the infrastructure necessary for Russia to take advantage of what Ukraine has in the way of natural resources? He wouldn’t. It’s that simple.

 

Now here the Ukraine situation becomes even more interesting not just for the reasons sited nor for the players involved but for who is remaining somewhat silent and seemingly, at this point, not taking sides. And here we speak of Israel, still America's staunchest ally no matter that the Biden administration is carrying on Obama's policies of openly stabbing the Jewish State in the back.

 

Simply, unlike here in the U.S. where both politicians and government leaders are quick to take sides in any international dispute, as well as getting us involved in conflicts we have no business being involved in, Israel knows when it is truly best for them to lay low because Israel has vested security interests in maintaining a cordial, constructive, working relationship with Russia. After all, Russia remains the most significant military power on the ground in Syria, a country still at war with the Jewish state. 

 

And know that when he was prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu worked hard to forge a friendship and a close working relationship with Vladimir Putin...which thankfully seems to have continued on with the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government...while at the same time never turning on or siding against the U.S. In fact, this relationship allowed a bridge of sorts to be built between Russia, the U.S., the Gulf States, and Israel, as can be seen by joint Israeli and Russian military coordination in Syria...coordination involving keeping Russian troops safe during Israeli retaliatory bombing raids...and the fact that Russia never condemned nor tried to stop the implementation of the “Abraham Accords.”

In fact, Russia's ambassador to Israel, one Anatoly Viktorov, recently stated that discussions between the two countries do not focus on Ukraine, but instead focus on “bilateral and regional agenda as well as other issues, which can contribute to the further development of Russian–Israeli friendly relations for the benefit of the peoples of our countries.”

Words that, to date, have worked out well for both countries yet Israel, while remaining neutral, is not ignoring the situation in Ukraine for some very interesting reasons. First, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish and has stated that “Israel is often an example for Ukraine” and “both Ukrainians and Jews value freedom,” which is undeniably true and second, Israel and Ukraine have had diplomatic relations for 30 years. No need or want to burn bridges there especially with Yevgen Korniychuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel and an ally of Zelensky, recently stating that Ukraine may soon “officially recognize” Jerusalem as Israel’s capital pending some “security-related conditions”...which is quite understandable given the talk of a possible Russian invasion...and that Ukraine is also considering opening a trade office in Jerusalem. 

 

And Russia has issued no words of contradiction nor have they called either Israel or Ukraine to task over said words. In fact, last year Vladimir Putin himself stated that, “Ukrainians and Russians are essentially the same people and should unite as Jews have in Israel.” Maybe on some level Putin knows a truth that Israel has known for quite some time...that a war waged solely in the name of “nationalism” will only work to a country's advantage when the cause is both just and serves all the people well. And Israel knows that taking sides in what is a truly nationalistic war serves no one well, most especially Israel, for to take a side against either country is not to Israel's advantage nor in its best interests.

However, Israel might be the very country that helps to diffuse this situation in a way that no one has expected. How so...because if Iran does announce its having a nuclear weapon within the next few weeks, as is being projected, the focus will shift off Russia and Ukraine and return once again to the Middle East. This in turn will force both Russia and Ukraine to make compromises and concessions to their individual agendas as countering Iranian aggression will take top priority for all areas within Iran's possible launch capabilities. 

Remember, if Iran secures nuclear weapons the entire region will be forced to be on high alert because even the Russians, whose alliances with Iran are tenuous at best, sees its relationship and ties with Israel growing stronger by the day. And if there was a reinstating of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal before an announcement is made, Iran will immediately receive sanctions relief that they, in turn, will use some of the funds released to help support and bolster Iranian-backed terror groups that threaten both Israel and the entire region.

Simply, even at the most seemingly critical of times diverting can mean deflecting which does tend to temper down a crisis that is into a crisis that was, and Israel vs. Iran just might be that deflection for we do not believe that when push comes to shove that Russia will allow Israel to cease to exist.

But the final question that must be asked, even if it can’t be definitively answered, is where exactly does Biden stand on the Russia/Ukraine matter?

Honestly, it’s hard to tell, but as of late last week, we learned more about where Russia stands. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko said that Biden’s move to add 3,000 troops to the European theater would “increase military tension and reduce scope for political decision.” Grushko went on to say that Ukrainian authorities would be delighted and would continue to sabotage the Minsk Protocol “with impunity,” but as we have already explained, Russia has done more than their fair share of Minsk Protocol sabotaging already.

Let’s go back a few weeks to that disastrous press conference Biden gave when he said, “I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do.” Naturally, later that day and the next morning, Biden’s communications staff and Biden himself attempted to walk that back, but it remains that he said what he said and the whole world, including Putin, was listening. Biden literally gave Putin the wink and the nod for a “minor incursion” into Ukraine.

 

There’s a reason for that and we’ll get to that shortly, but first, what would constitute a “minor incursion” into Ukraine?

A “minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine would most likely come by way of Russia spurring a populist uprising within Ukraine by Ukrainian Russians who would rather be Russians living in a Russia-friendly Ukraine than Russians living in a Ukraine that rather dislikes Russia. Such Ukrainian Russians don’t want to go to war with their own, and wouldn’t. They would, however, vote Ukraine’s current government out in favor of a government friendly to Russia and to Putin which would suite Putin just fine because that would provide Putin unfettered access to the sorts of Ukrainian natural resources we mentioned earlier.

What we’re talking about here is a much more “political incursion” than a military invasion and there is one major plus for Putin in such a “minor incursion” over the military option. Once Russian tanks, planes and ground forces engage, there would be no way for Putin to deny such an invasion, however, spurring a populist uprising and engaging in cyber monkey business regarding Ukrainian elections would provide Putin an element of deniability thus softening the blowback from NATO and possibly the U.N..

But why would Biden be in favor of a “minor incursion?”

Simple. Ukraine has the dirt on Hunter Biden and thus, they have the dirt on Joe Biden and the rest of the Biden organized international crime syndicate. Should that dirt suddenly come out from under the Ukrainian rug, while Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky remains in power and without a “minor incursion” by Russia, not even Obama would be able to protect Biden. But if such a “minor incursion” were to take place and then an exiled Zelensky released the dirt, Obama and his puppets could cover for Biden by calling it a sour grapes false report from the former Ukrainian government and a wild right-wing conspiracy theory by Conservatives in this country. Putin would never release the dirt on the Bidens because Putin rather enjoys having a dithering, blathering idiot at the helm in the United States, and a Putin-friendly Ukrainian government wouldn’t release it because they would want what Putin wants.

What we do know is that Vladimir Putin is a patient man, and if patience were a coin, the other side of it would be desperation, and that’s where we find Joe Biden. Biden is desperate for something he can hang his hat on from a foreign policy standpoint after the disaster he engineered in the surrender in Afghanistan. Biden is desperate to be the guy who can claim he faced down Putin and made Putin blink which is exactly what Biden will do if Putin does nothing.

Our best educated guess at this point is that Putin will get what he wants, a friendly to Russia Ukrainian government and access to the natural resources, his amassed troops will stay where they are, and while Biden crows about how tough he was by threatening Russia, Putin will have the last laugh.

Time is on Putin’s side, and time will tell the final tale.

Copyright © 2022 / Diane Sori and Craig Andresen / Right Side Patriots  / All rights reserved.            

 

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