Is 2016 Redrawing the Political Map?

Michael Barone / Townhall Columnist

Is the political map, so familiar that even non-pundits offhandedly refer to red, blue and purple states, changing before our eyes? Yes, at least to a limited extent -- and it's probably about time. 

 

The political map has been pretty static for almost two decades, the longest since the 1880s. In the last four presidential elections 40 states and the District of Columbia, with 422 electoral votes, have voted for nominees of the same party each time. In only a few cases were the margins very close, as was the case with the five states with 41 electoral votes that voted for a second party just once (North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire).

That leaves only five states, with 75 electoral votes, supporting the winning candidates, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, in all of the last four elections. You will recognize them as the purplest of purple states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada.

Current polling, which shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 points nationally, suggests it's possible that all 40 steadfast states will stay in the same column next November. Clinton is actually running stronger in 2012 target states than nationally, perhaps because her campaign has been running reams of television ads in most of them and Trump's hasn't.

But there's also something else going on, some significant though not overwhelming (and to some extent countervailing) trends among identifiable segments of the electorate.

Minimum Wage Increase Puts 1,400 D.C. Restaurant Employees Out of Work

Catherine Dunn / Townhall Tipsheet

D.C. restaurants have lost 1,400 jobs in the first half of the year. This loss—the steepest drop since the 2001 recession—follows a significant minimum wage hike.

Data  suggests that the D.C. restaurant industry has been unable to absorb the higher cost of labor without reducing employment opportunities. Since mandating a base wage of $10.50 in July 2015 and another increase to $11.50 in July 2016, D.C. has seen employment in the restaurant industry trend downward, for a 3 percent job loss in 2016.

“Cities and states around the country that are considering a hike in their minimum wages to $15 an hour might want to take a look at how that’s working out in the nation’s capitol,” writes Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute.

While D.C. has not yet increased its minimum wage to $15, the wage hikes it has implemented have put it well on that path. And, according Perry, even these more modest increases have had negative effects.

Using the neighboring suburbs in Maryland and Virginia as a “natural experiment,” Perry compared the employment rates in D.C., where the minimum wage had been raised, to the rates in states with lower minimum wages—$8.75 and $7.25 respectively.

He found that these suburbs actually saw an increase in hiring during the same period that D.C. experienced 3 percent job loss. Restaurant employment grew at a 1.6 percent rate for an additional 2,900 jobs.

Despite this troubling comparison, D.C. officials have no plans to reduce the city’s minimum wage.

On the contrary, they have added a measure to November’s ballot to increase its minimum wage even further—$15 an hour for non-tipped employees and $5 an hour for tipped.

Iran vessels “harass,” make “high speed intercept” of US warship near Strait of Hormuz
By Robert Spencer/ / Jihad Watch

 

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been on a war footing against the United States since 1979. The Iran nuclear deal only emboldened it. Iranian vessels regularly confront U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf, while the Obama administration tries to downplay these incidents so as to mislead Americans into thinking that Iran is achieving a […]
 
Read in browser »

Conservatives Slam Trump Retreat on Immigration

NEWSMAX

• 0
  inShare

Donald Trump is backing away from his call for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, and even some of his rally-going supporters say they’re fine with it.

If he wins the November election, the Republican presidential nominee said Monday, he would do “the same thing” as President Barack Obama in prioritizing the removal of criminals residing in the U.S. illegally, but “perhaps with a lot more energy.”

Trump appears to be heeding allies’ longstanding advice to soften his stance on deportations, which they worry is toxic to Hispanic voters, now that he faces Democrat Hillary Clinton—and troubling poll numbers–in a general election fewer than 80 days away.

His move raised the hackles of some conservatives who see it as a step toward amnesty, but it’s not clear his bid to broaden support will cost him many core supporters.

‘Same Thing’

“We’re going to obey the existing laws. Now, the existing laws are very strong,” Trump said Monday on Fox News. “The first thing we’re going to do, if and when I win, is we’re going to get rid of all of the bad ones. We’ve got gang members, we have killers, we have a lot of bad people that have to get out of this country.”

MI5 ‘blocked’ arrest of ISIS-supporting jihad preacher Choudary ‘for years’

Pamela Geller / Atlas Shrugs

Maybe he was an intel asset as they claim in this article — or maybe they were just afraid of being labeled “racist.” That is epidemic in the dhimmi UK these days.

“MI5 ‘blocked’ arrest of ISIS-supporting radical preacher Choudary ‘for years,’” RT, August 22, 2016:


Counterterrorism officers were repeatedly blocked by British security service MI5 from pursuing criminal investigations against Britain’s highest-profile radical preacher, Anjem Choudary, it has been claimed.

Last week, Choudary was found guilty of supporting Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS, ISIL), which seized territory in Iraq and Syria and inspired terrorist attacks across Europe. Following his conviction, it was revealed that the...

Read the whole entry »

     

• Email to a friend •