White House Gets Jobs Number Wrong: Can You Spot the Deception?*

John Ransom / Townhall Columnist

 

Outside of the rarified circles of the White House, Wall Street, economists and journalists with great defined-benefits plans, this is the kind of spontaneous publicity that makes people wanna cry.

The new jobs report is out! The new jobs report is out!

The good news is that the stock market thinks the jobs report is very good news.

But that’s not exactly good news is it? South Carolina could fall into the ocean and the market would rally on word the Federal Reserve Bank is ready to extend quantitative easing into another millennia.

The next day, the market would move higher as word spread that unemployment ticked down as drowned Carolinians exited the workforce.

The bad news is that once again Wall Street, like Washington, has it exactly backwards.

Wall Street rocketed on the news.


Can you detect when the jobs report came out from five-minute chart above?
 
New jobs came in for the month at 113,000, while unemployment ticked down another 0.1 percent to 6.6 percent. Economists expected jobs to come in at 180,000 to 190,000. That’s a 68 percent miss.

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent,” the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. “Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.”

It’s depressing, but not for the obvious reasons.

It’s depressing because the numbers are wrong in a way that should strike fear and dread into the heart of every honest citizen.

Why?

Because they don’t add up. Again.

The government has once again found a novel way to goose the employment numbers so that they say what they really can’t say:

Things are getting better, gosh darn it!

The government accomplished this feat by revising the number of non-farm jobs upward for March 2013 by 369,000.

If you don’t have job creation, apparently, you can just create jobs arithmetically and then hide them in a footnote to a revision*.

I knew immediately upon seeing the labor force participation rate creep up (from 62.8 percent to 63 percent), while unemployment crept down (from 6.7 percent to 6.6 percent) that there was a BIG revision somewhere to the jobs numbers.

“The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent),” says the BLS in the situation report.

And none of this stops the mainstream media for saying that unemployment has reached a new five-year low.

“Despite last month's sluggish job growth,” says the LATimes, “the nation’s unemployment rate again edged lower, to 6.6% in January from 6.7% in December! That is the lowest since October 2008!!

The jobless figure has dropped sharply since October when it was 7.2%!!!”**

Not surprisingly the White House echoed the good news from LA.

“Look, just a couple months ago,” said Jason Furman, Obama’s chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, “people didn't think we'd be at 6.6% [unemployment] until the end of this year!!” Furman of course leads the economic tribe that couldn’t get the advance estimate of jobs even nearly right.

He concluded: “We've gotten there already!!!”

It’s almost as if the White House communicated telepathically with the LA Times on the issue.

Of course that would be silly.

I’m sure they just used the phone.

The LA Times of course is listed in the new phone book.

Page 73.

So, things are really gonna start happening now.

*For example I just hid a 352,000 jobs in the sentence above. Question: Can you find them? 
 
** Yes, I added the !!! marks. Question: Can you find them? Answer: Not if you’re an economist. 
Their estimate would be off by 68 percent.

The Debt Limit and the 2014 Elections: The GOP Should Plan And Campaign In The Key Of Common Sense  

Hugh Hewitt / Townhall Columnist

My conversation with GOP Senate Senator Mitch McConnell on air Thursday made it obvious that he cannot plan or execute a Senate GOP strategy on the debt limit until the House GOP passes some sort of a debt limit bill and sends it over to the Senate, and even then no one can ever underestimate Harry Reid's twists and turns after it arrives. Damien Paletta has the latest details in the Friday Wall Street Journal, and it is clear that the House GOP leadership is floundering. Again.

The GOP again played into the MSM narrative by not putting something on the floor this past week and trying to get it passed with or without Democratic votes. They have to return next week and actually act, not whisper to each other and the occasional favored reporter. If the first GOP package fails, they try again. But rather than starting with paralysis followed by retreat, start with common sense.

The GOP isn't going to trigger a default, not with the 2014 focus squarely on Obamacare and not the debt, and not with the memory of the shutdown already faded and very few in a hurry to play a second game of chicken after appearing to lose round one only to a huge overtime win because of the ghastly and truly unprecedented collapse of Obamacare's rollout. We can debate forever what went wrong and right in the fall and whether Senator Cruz's branding strategy was inspired or a near disaster, but in early February, 2014, the GOP looks to be in a solid position to win a convincing victory in the fall --if they don't blow it right now.

Some observations: Though various GOP electeds have tried to interest people in the issue, no one but no one --NO ONE as is "ZERO"-- is calling or emailing the show exercised about "risk corridors" and bailouts for insurance companies that haven't happened yet. Very few people understand what it means and those that do aren't making the phone ring. People. Don't. Care.

No one wanted immigration reform either, and as Senator McConnell confirmed yesterday, it isn't happening in 2014. Maybe the Congressional GOP is developing the ability to actually listen to a very well-wired world that is watching very closely and whose opinions can accurately be gauged by paying attention, and that is a good thing iof the trend continues.

People do very much understand and deeply care about and resent the cut to the career military COLA and do very clearly understand and want repealed the awful medical device tax. So the House GOP leadership should again listen and respond. A repeal of both attached to the debt hike would be a potent package that many Democrats in both chambers will have to vote for. Indeed, the GOPers who wouldn't vote for such a package won't vote for any package at all, so why not get an accurate head count of the GOPers who don't care about any 2014 elections other than their own?

Again, given these realities, why hasn't that package been put to the caucus for a vote? If that proposed double win on the repeals of the career military COLA cut and the medical device tax doesn't get whatever critical mass the Speaker is looking for --the Hastert rule is clearly not in force at this moment-- why isn't package after package being discussed and voted on rather than gossiped about? Inside baseball wisecracks don't make for a winning strategy with either the base or the undecided middle that is currently more angry with the Democrats than the GOP, nor is waiting for Democrats to steal a march a good idea either. (Arkansas endangered Democratic Senator Mark Pryor desperately wants to author the repeal of the military COLA cut he voted for and Congressman Tom Cotton opposed; why would the House GOP let him get even that slippery handhold? In hopes that he will say out loud that he was for the COLA cut before he was against it?)

Democrats keep saying "clean, clean, clean" --and that is a great target for mockery if and when the GOP sends them a bill that includes measures the Democrats are already on record saying they support, like the repeals of the career military COLA cut and medical device tax. (30 Senate Democrats voted to repeal the medical device tax in May of 2013.) If any of the endangered Senate Democrats vote no on such a package or if Harry Reid refuses to bring it up, the GOP has another gold-plated argument to make with the public. The talk of offsets and "smoothing" etc is all noise.

Focus on the substance of the must pass bill and get it over to the Senate. Senator Kelly Ayotte has the perfect revenue measure, so use it. (To repeat: 30 Senate Democrats voted to repeal the medical device tax last May.) Put House and Senate Democrats to the test on the medical device tax next week, along with the repeal of the military COLA cut they and the GOP know has turned out to be political poison.

The time to tackle the deficit and entitlement reform will be with both Houses of Congress in GOP hands, next December and beyond. That won't happen if the GOP botches this moment, and time isn't on their side. Call your House GOP member and tell them to demand the COLA and medical device tax repeal and get on with it ASAP. Their switchboard is 202-224-3121.

Once a debt limit bill passes the House, see what the Senate does, and if Obama-Reid choose obstruction, start talking now about Democrats refusal to undo the damage they inflicted on the vets and on entrepreneurs all a cross the country even as Harry Reid risks default. Thus does the GOP repair the damage done to the national security conservatives and keep the debate focused at least on a part of Obamacare the public gets --the most stupid of the bill's many stupid revenue features.

U.S. training Free Syrian Army in Jordan — a group that violently targets Christians

Robert Spencer  / Jihad Watch

 

The U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army — those are the “moderates,” you know. How moderate? This moderate: in July 2013, Free Syrian Army fighters entered the Christian village of Oum Sharshouh and began burning down houses and terrorizing the population, forcing 250 Christian families to flee the area. Worthy News reported that just two days later, Free Syrian Army rebels “targeted the residents of al-Duwayr/Douar, a Christian village close to the city of Homs and near Syria’s border with Lebanon….Around 350 armed militants forcefully entered the homes of Christian families who were all rounded-up in the main square of the village and then summarily executed.” And in September 2013, a day after Secretary of State John Kerry praised the Free Syrian Army as “a real moderate opposition,” the FSA took to the Internet to post videos of its attack on the ancient Syrian Christian city of Maaloula, one of the few places where Aramaic, the language of Jesus, is still spoken.

This is just the faction Obama is backing. This is America’s shame.

“West bankrolls Free Syrian Army fightback,” by Tom Coghlan and Norhan Keshik for The Times via The Australian, February 8:

THE West and Gulf states are funding a new military offensive by rebel forces around Damascus in an effort to throw the Assad regime on to the back foot before a second round of Syria peace talks.

The assault marks an attempt by the Free Syrian Army and its allies abroad to reassert control after months of rebel infighting.

The timing of the attack, codenamed “Geneva Horan”, comes amid fears Bashar al-Assad will give little ground at the negotiating table while he has the upper hand on the battlefield.

FSA forces yesterday posted online videos of rebel tanks, heavy mortars and rocket launchers pounding what were said to be government positions on highways near the town of Athman, north of the city of Daraa, close to the Jordanian border.

The attack involving 18 rebel brigades was accompanied by a fresh influx of money and weaponry channelled through Jordan, where the US has established a training base for the FSA, say rebel field commanders. It includes $57 million in cash to pay the rebels.

Monzer Akbik, a spokesman for the rebel Syrian National Coalition, refused to be drawn into specifics. “There are things that are better not to be announced,” he said. “I don’t really want to go into the details of funding. We have friends – our friends in the West and our brothers in the Gulf.”…

The FSA has been seen as an increasingly peripheral presence on the battlefield while Gulf powers including Saudi Arabia and Qatar channelled the lion’s share of funding and weapons to hardline religious factions such as the Islamic Front. Late last month, the US approved a supply of a big shipment of arms to rebels in Jordan….

Powerful jihadist groups announced their own northern offensive yesterday. The Islamic Front, an alliance of factions that includes the al-Qa’ida-aligned al-Nusra Front, declared the start of “Operation Truthful Promise Approaches” in Aleppo yesterday….

Op-ed:  

Enforce the law...NO need to change the law
By: Diane Sori

Simply put, America's already on the books immigration laws do NOT need to be reformed...they need to be enforced...period.

Trying to rendering yet another of our rules of law null and void, our Traitor-in-Chief...YES traitor...Barack HUSSEIN Obama rendered our Constitution basically invalid yet again as he moves forward with his quest to fundamentally change our beloved America from within.

And still Congress sits back and does NOTHING while yet another law written by them that Obama does NOT like is replaced with one that he does.

This time it involves his amnesty push...a push to increase the Democratic voter rolls and change the 'so-called' complexion of America itself. Now wanting to allow those from Arab countries...as in muslims... with "limited" or "loose" ties to known terrorists or terrorist organizations into our country, this man has yet again crossed the line into 'aiding and abetting' the enemy, but now his actions have seriously compromised the 'health, safety, and welfare' of the American people.

And to make matters worse, fellow traitor and muslim/Palestinian sympathizer Secretary of State John 'Swiftboat' Kerry will be the final judge and jury of who will be deemed a terrorist and who won't be deemed a terrorist...who poses NO danger to America and who might pose a danger to America. But the bottom line is something that Barack HUSSEIN Obama needs to hear loud and clear...and it's what many of the politically correct are thinking but dare NOT say...'We the People' do NOT want or need any more muslims...complete with their sharia law and burqa nonsense...in our country...period.

And why...it has NOTHING to do with racism as muslims come in all races...in all colors...in all nationalities...it has everything to do with the documented fact that 24,500+ deadly terrorist attacks by muslims have occurred worldwide since 9/11, and some have happened right in our country...let's NOT forget the Fort Hood Massacre (and it was NOT 'workplace violence' as out Traitor-in-Chief claims) and the Boston Marathon Bombing, to name just two. And at least 50...most likely a lot more...planned terrorist attacks against us have been thwarted...but hey, throw open the doors as Obama and crew want to do and made 'We the People' ripe for the pickings at the hands of his muslim brethren...and increase the Democratic voting block NOT to mention allowing sharia law to creep more deeply into the fabric of our American society at the same time...a two-for-one if you will.

And to that affect, this past Wednesday, The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the State Department added new exemptions to the existent Immigration and Nationality Act removing provisions that previously excluded refugees and asylum seekers who had provided limited material support, no matter how minor, to terrorists.

According to DHS, “These exemptions cover five kinds of limited material support that have adversely and unfairly affected refugees and asylum seekers with no tangible connection to terrorism: material support that was insignificant in amount or provided incidentally in the course of everyday social, commercial, family or humanitarian interactions, or under significant pressure.”

"Adversely and unfairly affected refugees and asylum seekers"...NO...I do NOT think so for there is NO such thing as an "insignificant amount" of terrorism...one is either a supporter and/or a willing participant in terrorism or one is NOT. It is that simple...just as one is either a follower of islam (a muslim) and the qur'an demanded call to jihad or one is NOT a muslim...period.

And to prove the point that the law actually needs to be tightened...seriously tightened NOT relaxed... and that once a muslim terrorist for the most part always a muslim terrorist...is the case of two al-Qaeda operatives who were living in Bowling Green, Kentucky after being let into the U.S. in 2009 as refugees by claiming they faced persecution back home in Iraq. However, the FBI found out and had the two arrested for attacking U.S. soldiers in Iraq, which they admitted to in court. They also admitted that they were still loyal to al-Qaeda and were awaiting orders to a call for jihad against America.

And these are the kind of people who will now be allowed into our country under the Obama tampered with law...seeming political refugees who are anything but.

And so by unilaterally ordering a change to the existent law, Barack HUSSEIN Obama has placed the safety of American citizens below that of the enemy as he once again oversteps his executive bounds and steps close to the bounds of...if NOT outright crossing over those bounds into treason for this change makes it easier...hell...it clearly opens the doors for his brethren to get around and work the immigration system to their advantage. Now those evaluating these cases...which 'Mr. Swiftboat' himself will have authority over...will for all intents and purposes be ordered to ignore certain 'red flags' in the applications that they previously would have tagged, especially if the one applying for asylum happens to sponsored by one of the so-called very vocal, very anti-American, very dangerous muslim advocacy groups like CAIR.

This change, according to Jessica Vaughan...former State Department official and current Director of Policy Studies for the Center for Immigration Studies...means that since “The (Obama) administration already approves of the admission of gang members as asylees and criminals in the DACA program and grants of prosecutorial discretion, so I don’t expect them to be troubled by the admission of terrorists and garden variety fraudsters in our refugee program. This is how we end up with families like the Tsarnaev brothers [the Boston marathon bombers], who were originally admitted for political asylum.”

NOT good folks...NOT good at all.

By making this unilateral change to our immigration laws even before the dialogue in Congress on possible (unwanted) immigration reform has ended let alone begun, a dangerous precedent is being set, for now Barack HUSSEIN Obama...the President of the United States (gag) ...is welcoming with open arms a potential act of terror to occur on American soil...and that goes beyond just 'aiding and abetting' the enemy ...it goes all the way to an outright act of treason against the United States of America.

It will now be interesting to see if our gutless Congress finally stands up and says 'NO' but I'm NOT going to hold my breath for that to happen.