China-Xinjiang: Update. Chinese media
reported that local courts in six cities or prefectures in western
China sentenced 81 people for terrorism-related acts in 23 cases. Twelve
people were sentenced to death, but three received a two-year reprieve.
The crimes included organizing, leading or participating in terrorist
organizations; murder; illegal manufacture or storage of explosives; and
making and distributing audio and video tapes on terrorism, inciting
hatred and teaching criminal behavior.
Comment: This indicates the crackdown continues. The harsh punishments are intended to serve as a lesson and a deterrent.
China-Philippines: The Philippine government told the
press that it has confirmed that China is engaged in land reclamation
operations on 2 more reefs in the Spratly Islands in the South China
Sea.
The 2 reefs -Gavin Reef and Cuateron Reef -- are close to Johnson South
Reef, where the Philippines reported Chinese reclamation activity in
May.
A Philippine military spokesman said China already has erected structures on the 2 reefs.
Comment: The Chinese appear to be making a
string of manned, if not fortified, islets to back up their claims to
sovereignty with physical presence. When they are finished, the reefs
will have been re-engineered to Chinese requirements.
Syria: Feedback and a correction: Multiple
Brilliant Readers pointed out that the Syrian vote count was
inconsistent with the Syrian population figure taken from the
CIA World Factbook. The Readers are correct and the
Factbook's population total for Syria is wrong.
NightWatch relies on the
CIA World Factbook as
a standard reference for unclassified factual, baseline information, as
does the Intelligence Community. On three occasions since 2006,
NightWatch has found errors in the
Factbook.
This was the third occasion. Prompted by Feedback,
NightWatch consulted
six separate sources for the total population of Syria. They agreed
that it is between 22 and 23 million people, not 17.9 million as
indicated in the
CIA World Factbook. There are about 7 million Syrians under voting age of 18 and more than 15 million registered voters.
Readers also disputed whether this was a democratic election and
whether the votes were coerced.
While those issues are important, they
are tangential to the threat analysis. The
NightWatch threat analysis is that the election reinforced the judgment that the Ba'athist government is not in danger of collapse.
Nigeria: Update. Suspected Boko Haram
militants launched an attack today on a village near the north-eastern
city of Maiduguri. The armed men told villagers they had come to preach.
After a crowd gathered, they fired into the crowd, killing about 45
people.
Mali: On 4 June, President Keita's government has
decided to require six-month's of universal, compulsory national
service, beginning in 2015. A communique said the government wants "to
develop a feeling of patriotism and the instinct for national defense."
Training will include military discipline,weapons familiarization and apparently civics.
Comment: Mali analysts interpret the measure
as a long term response to the latest Touareg uprising. The Touaregs
routed the army near Kidal last month. This is not military
conscription, which exists in Mali, but appears to be selective. This is
a program to build a stronger sense of national identity in the youth.
While it will be expensive and might not work, the idea at least
responds to a condition in many states with security problems. Tribal
identity remains much stronger than national identity.
End of NightWatch