This opinion piece is my opinion alone, and does not necessarily
represent the views of blogspot.or google.com
As
the “on
again, off again”
war with Iran continues on...in fact the war is assuredly expanding
when on Saturday, as I was writing this, CENTCOM reported that two
U.S. troops stationed in Jordan had been killed with another reported
missing after Iran started lobbing ballistic missiles and drones into
Jordan on Friday.Sadly,
even with that news,
our country still remains divided over both the logistics of how this
war is being fought and who is actually the one calling all the shots
and why no matter that some
interesting but not unexpected developments have occurred, including
that the much ballyhooed Trump re-initiated blockade of the “Strait
of Hormuz”
is back in full operational mode.
And
while I admit that I have not been pleased with some of the decisions
Trump has made, here I must come to his defense in regards to the
fact that many nations, including some of our allies, continue to
condemn his reinstating of the blockade.Why so...because I truly
believe that they do not understand the cause and effect legalities
involved. For example, while “The
International Law of Naval Warfare
(LONW) governs
actual armed conflict at sea, it's the“Law
of Armed Conflict” (LOAC)
that
dictates
hostilities, distinction, and the proportionality of war, and that
both do combine together to meld into the
“United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea” (UNCLOS).
And while it's this law that requires “unimpeded
passage” through
the “Strait of
Hormuz” and other
what are deemed to be “vital
and neutral waterways,” there
is caveat in these laws which states as long as the nation
initiating the blockade respects the terms as written in the “San
Remo Manual” that
they are legally able to do so.
So
what exactly is this all important “San
Remo Manual”...which
President Trump surely had to know about...but a list of demands
including that both“belligerent
and neutral states”
be made fully aware of the fact that a blockade was to be put into
effect; that said blockade would be effective in its endeavors; that
the blockade can be enforced impartially against vessels from all
nations both friends and foes alike; that the blockade is not being
put into place for the sole purpose of starving civilian populations;
and that humanitarian relief and aid must be allowed to reach said
civilian populations if they have not already been adequately
provided for.
And
while President Trump, I'm sure has followed the letter of the law in
regards to the “San
Remo Manual”...Secretary
of State Marco Rubio would most assuredly see to that..I'm just as
sure that Iran has not and likely never will follow said manual. Why
so...because their actions already taken... actions clearly in direct
violation of said manual...are there for all to see. And this
includes Iran's so-called “indiscriminate
mining”
of the Strait minus their having not given the
“San Remo Manual” required
“notice
of hazardous zones” to
those involved;
coupled
with
their also having not taken the much needed precautions to safeguard
civilians when they originally started mining the Strait. Now add in
the fact that Iran also did not comply with the required tracking of
those mines nor did they issue the also required mariner
notifications...again as per the “Sam
Remo Manual.”
And
no matter the words of the naysayers, the law itself continues to be
on Trump's side regarding the reinstated blockade not only as per all
I just stated, but also as per his being given Constitutional
authority as
Commander-in-Chief
under Article II of the U.S.
Constitution,
to order military operations to protect American security interests
and those of our allies abroad courtesy of a “proportional
response” to,
what were in this case, Iran's ceasefire breaking attacks on
commercial vessels, and also on our military assets in the area.
Simply,
the “Strait
of Hormuz”
was and must remain a legally free-to-use and safe international
waterway, and Trump, courtesy of said reinstated blockade, is
attempting to keep it that way as witnessed by his recent cancelling
of his wanted 20% “safe
passage”
protection fee...after all even broken a clock is right twice a day.
So
while President Trump was not just right, but legally right, in his
reinstating the “Gulf
of Hormuz” naval
blockade, he was, in
my opinion, totally wrong in even thinking of selling U.S. F-35 jets
to Turkey...Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey. Why so...because Erdogan's
no longer being veiled anti-Israel rhetoric regarding the “Jewish
State” being an
“existential
and genocidal threat to the region,”
has become not only a
growing destabilizing factor in and of itself, but
poses
numerous security and geopolitical risks not just to Israel but to
our country and our other allies as well.
How
so...because with Turkey continuing to operate the Russian S-400 air-defense system, this alone could possibly allow Russia to study
and then compromise the F-35's actual stealth capabilities. Trump
should know this as well as he should know that 2017's “Countering
America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act”
(CAATSA) was designed to penalize not reward countries that engage in
“significant
business transactions”
involving the defense or intelligence sectors operating under Russian
technology...as does Turkey, Iran, and North Korea.
But
Erdogan knew exactly how to bypass this law by his“reportedly”
transferring Turkey's S-400 defense system to a yet to be disclosed
Gulf state, while at the same time relishing in the fact that Trump
has already announced plans to lift U.S. sanctions on Turkey. Nothing
like stabbing our ally Israel in the back yet again...nothing like
hoping to successfully “pull
the wool'
over Trump's eyes.
So
now as I write this, Erdogan is still hoping to make the F-35 deal
with Trump...our president who sadly still does not fully understand
the ideology nor the objectives of Islam. And Erdogan will happily
sign on the dotted line with fingers crossed behind his back as
Israel...as Netanyahu...who is vehemently opposed to this deal...gets
stabbed in the back once again.
And lost in this, a war now seemingly going nowhere fast, has been the outward voices of both
Russia and China...the voices of both Vladimir Putin and Xi
Jinping...who one would think would play a big yet albeit silent
part in our war with Iran especially with both countries trying to
make inroads into the Middle East.
So
here let's start with Russia and Vladimir Putin by first
understanding that Russia
has maintained somewhat of a delicate balancing act in the Middle
East by having friendly and growing trade and other relations with
Israel coupled with Putin having a friendship of sorts with Benjamin
Netanyahu in spite of Russia's military ties with Iran...or as Putin
calls it, “a nuanced
relationship.”
Economics folks...simple
economics helps to drive wars forward or keeps them contained...and
economics more times than not does determine which side of a war a
country will or will not be on.
And
that which is economics worked in our, Israel's, and Russia's favor
here. How so...because Putin was well aware that with almost two
million people of Russian descent...people who fled to Israel from
what was (thanks to Reagan) the then fallen Soviet Union...people who
economically flourished in Israel...people who sent money home to
family still in Russia in an effort to help keep alive their cultural
ties to Russia. And this in time saw Russia opening the door to a
modern day melding of cultural and economic ties with Israel, which
aided Russia economically and on the global political front. How
so... by not only helping to preserve Russia's Middle East geopolitical influence, but by it helping to temper down what Russia
deemed to be “international economic alienation.”
So
with Russia also being culturally and of course economically way more
like Israel than it is Iran, and with trade relations with Israel now
proving to be extremely beneficial to Russia as it helps with the
economic drain the Ukraine war is putting on Russia's economy...Putin
was wise enough to see that making amends with Israel was not only
the right thing to do but that outwardly supporting
Iran was far from a smart idea.
So
for his and Russia's sake, Vladimir Putin wisely chose to be a
somewhat “neutral observer” rather than his having to
choose a definitive side to be on in regards to the Iran war. And
know that if Putin had outwardly chosen to side with Iran that this
war could well have included actual flashpoints between the U.S. and
Russia as well...flashpoints whose outcome need not be said.
And
so Putin being an “observer” rather than a player has
helped to keep this war somewhat geographically contained...a good
thing indeed.
Now
in regards to why Xi Jinping and China, who also could have been a key player in the
Iran War but thankfully is not, that too on some level is because of
simple economics coupled with China's growing concerns that any
assistance they could provide to Iran, while it might aid Iran’s
ability to retaliate in the short term, it could end up involving
China in a war with the U.S. either militarily or economically which
surely would not be advantageous for China.
So
now it seems that as the war continues on that what China wants is a
“flexible alignments
over the formal defense alliances that America has long prized.”
And while China has, at times, openly condemned America and Israeli
strikes and actions against Iran, it chooses instead to remain busy
expanding its economic ties with Iran’s neighboring Gulf States
in hopes of at least neutralizing America's regional influence.
Also,
China remains very busy keeping an eye on Taiwan, while at the same time
constructing what they call a “no
limits” partnership
with Russia to help in the reconstruction of a postwar Ukraine...that
is if Russia wins said war. Simply, the current mindset of China
remains that of
"strategic
ambiguity"
in hopes of maintaining and then expanding trade ties with what they
consider to be Middle East power brokers, which in turn would
directly aid in growing China's economy.
Simply,
like with Russia, China favors looking out for itself rather than
wasting monies on giving material military support to Iran.
And
so Iran is basically on its own, but with the mullahs now saying they
will fight to the death, maybe President Trump should start worrying
about just how...bio-weapons perhaps...and who will go down with them.
Case closed.
Copyright @ 2026 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved.
************************************************************************************************** For more political commentary please visit my RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS partner Craig Andresen's blog The National Patriot to read his latest article, Hormuz and Beyond.
**************************************************************************************************************************
RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS...LIVE!
Tomorrow, Tuesday, July 21st from 7 to 8:30pm EST, RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS Craig Andresen and Diane Sori discuss 'On Blockades, Turkey, and the Economics of War'; 'Hormuz and Beyond'; and important news of the day. Tune in to RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS on https://rspradio1.com Click 'LISTEN LIVE.'
