The 2026 Battle for the Senate Is Still Likely Republican

Adam Turner / RedState 

Politico continues its dogged faux “reporting” to create a narrative that Democrats are a lock to control the U.S. Senate in 2026. Which gives me a great opening to make one of my periodic updates on some of the crucial Senate races. The Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority in the Senate. There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of four seats to win control.

The central problem for the Democrats is that only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states where Donald Trump won by double digits. That almost never happens in Senate elections, let alone twice. In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won a landslide, but they still didn’t carry a single district where Trump won with that margin. 

The Democrats also must not lose any of their own competitive seats. And in the blue wave of 2018, the Democrats still lost in an upset for their incumbent in Florida. Read mire here.