Op-ed:
Deal's Made, Deals Broken, Deals on the Sly
By:
Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / Right Side Patriots on American
Political Radio
So it seems an
interesting turn of events happened last weekend and earlier this
week...a turn of events I knew would eventually come as Russia...as
Vladimir Putin... has now basically sided with Israel over Iran. And
with that Israel's long hoped for wedge between Russia and Iran seems
to becoming to fruition in addition to it also being one of our
conditions for negotiating with Russia over the nightmare that is Syria.
With Russia now growing
more and more annoyed that Iran's presence in Syria coupled with its
altercations with Israel could threaten their interests, this past
Monday a news conference took place in Moscow where Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the only “field
military forces in the country’s southern border areas” should
be
Bashir al-Assad's government forces and that neither Iran nor
Hezbollah should be allowed anywhere near Israel's border.
Referring to the hotly
contested area known as the Golan Heights...an area bordering Jordan
as well as Israel...what Lavrov actually alluded to was that Russia
was open to Israeli demands that Iranian forces be kept far from its
borders.
In fact, Benjamin
Netanyahu recently met with Vladimir Putin and now it seems that
Russia has no problem with Israel's wanting Iranian forces...along
with Hezbollah and Shi'ite militia groups...being kept at least 40
miles from their Golan Heights border. Realizing now that their
previous agreed to “deal”
with
the Iranians...a “deal”
that
would see Iranian forces staying at least a minimum of three miles away from
Israel’s border...continuously gets broken has Putin now fully understanding
that Iran is putting in danger not only Russian interests in
Syria...specifically regarding the port at Tartus...but also is
affecting their trying to stabilize Bashir al-Assad's government.
And while the area in
question is currently being held by a number of rebel groups...groups
that include tentacles of ISIS and al-Qaeda along with actual Iranian
fighters...Israel continues to rightfully accuse Iran of trying to
establish a “permanent
presence”
in this area. Offering as proof that Iranian operatives have already
fired rockets into Israel from this very Golan Heights position, what
Iran forgets is that Israel has every right to defend herself and
thus has retaliated in kind by destroying both Syrian and Iranian
military installations. And this has led Russia to understand that if
they don't keep Iranian forces and their proxy armies* away from
Israel’s border, these Israeli strikes will indeed definitely
undermine Bashar al-Assad’s tenuous hold on Syria.
In other words, Russia
knows that it's better for all parties concerned...except for
Iran of course...to have the more secular Bashir al-Assad ruling
Syria...especially since Putin can control him to a large degree...than
it is to have the Iranian islamists gaining any control of the
country... islamists Putin himself is personally no fan of. And Putin
knows that as new ties continue to be forged between Israel and
Russia...including much needed economic ties that help Russia way
more than they help Israel...that those ties can actually be used to
change the entire dynamics of the Middle East. How so...by creating a
new alliance of sorts between not just Israel and Russia, but between
Russia and the U.S. as well, and it's an alliance that would help to
“reset”
all the damage one Barack HUSSEIN Obama did to the region.
And
it's a true “reset”
in every sense of the word and it was started when President Donald
Trump courageously pulled us out of Obama's very bad nuclear deal...a
“reset”
against
the Iranian regime that will change the critical balance of power in
favor of the
three mightiest military nations on earth. And make no mistake that
Israel is one of the three...maybe even number two...right behind the
U.S.
as Russia's recent economic downturn has affected both their military
allocations and its designated military operations.
And while Obama's
ill-fated Arab Spring was a complete disaster that led to total
regional chaos, the U.S., Russia, and Israel working together can
restore a semblance of “normalcy”
to said
region...“normalcy”
that favors the learned and sane over the archaic islamic
fundamentalist rulers of Iran. And the more moderate Arab
countries with their more moderate leaders would most surely see this “normalcy”
as beneficial to both them and their countries as well, and Iran knows it.
And Iran and the mullahs also know they must stop this alliance from
happening if their dictatorial regime is to survive, especially now
with all the turmoil and protests occurring on their own home soil as the people of Iran are yearning to be free.
So how exactly did Iran
respond to Lavrov's news conference...by saying that they most
assuredly reject Russia’s words that they pull their forces out of
Syria...especially those forces gathered along the Golan Heights
border...saying so even if by some chance a political settlement
between al-Assad and the rebels were to be reached. And Iran’s
Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi went so far as to threaten
that, “No
one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country and
its policies are determined based on the interests of the Islamic
Republic in the world.”
Well that might not exactly ring true as
Russia
has been secretly working on a deal to remove Iranian forces from
Israel's border after assessing the amount of damage Israel's May
10th attack alone afflicted on both Iranian and Syrian targets,
including the serious damage done to al-Assad's much needed air
defenses. Remember, Israel only initiated this attack in retaliation
for Iran’s al-Quds forces launching 32 rockets at their “forward
defensive line”
on their side of the Golan Heights border...and Russia knew well that
Israel would... and rightfully so...fight back.
And to that affect now
entering center stage is Jordan...a country at peace with Israel but
it's peace with King Abdullah's fingers crossed behind his back. A
foolish move on his part because the peace treaty signed on October
26, 1994 included a clause that Israel would offer a military
“umbrella
of defense”
should Jordan ever be threatened...and with Iranian fighters now being so close to their
border allows Israel to perceive them and Jordan as being threatened and take
defensive action if need be...something Abdullah surely would not like as he has known ties to Iran as well. But this is a peace treaty which, in my
opinion, should have been negated long ago if only for the fact that Jordan and its king supports the
Muslim Brotherhood as well as supporting, encouraging, and maybe even
helping to fund the Palestinian intifada.
And so with rummages that
al-Assad's forces are now planning a soon to come attack on rebel held
territory near its southern border with both Jordan and
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, reports are surfacing
that Iran's ambassador to Jordan, one Dr. Mostafa Moslehzadeh (via
notes and messages passed between adjoining hotel rooms in Amman as
well as between Syrian and Russian officials) met secretly last
weekend with senior Israeli security officials...including a
high-ranking member of the Mossad...to “negotiate”
a deal
where
Iran
would agree to stay out of the fighting in southern Syria especially near the Golan Heights border with Israel.
But remember Iran, like
Russia, desperately wants that port at Tartus both for its direct
and much needed access to the Mediterranean Sea and it's soon to come money-making gas
pipeline that will pass right through it...and only to one victor
will the Tartus spoils go. But al-Assad and Russia both still need
the Iranian-controlled militias to help take out the remaining so-called
“pockets”
of rebel held territories in Syria's south... “pockets”
in an area that is part of the “de-escalation
zone”...which
is a
"safe" zone
agreed to between both President Trump and President Putin on the
sidelines at the Hamburg summit. Agreed to as a "temporary
step" to
maintain a ceasefire and remove foreign forces from the
region in order to ensure a more "sustainable peace"...whom Bashir
al-Assad eventually gives Tartus to is still a toss-up of sorts
although, I believe, Tartus in the end will go to Russia.
And
why do I think so...consider this...because Iran now clearly needs Russia's
support regarding the nuclear deal President Trump so courageously
left. Remember, so few words were heard from Russia regarding our
leaving said deal, and that allows Russia to hold the 'trump' card
over Iran if they want said support. And that in turn now allows Russia
to trade their support for Iranian concessions regarding the removal of its
forces from Syria, which then makes Russia's position regarding Syria
more in line with both our and Israel's demands. And al-Assad still
gets Russia's aide in helping to remove the rebels even with Iran no
longer in the mix...a much needed win for al-Assad who then thanks Russia with
Tartus.
Russia
wins Tartus while Iran loses Syria but gets Russia's
support...low-key as it may be...regarding the nuclear deal which will soon collapse on its own anyway...kind of
a win-win all around with much “face
saved”...if
only this would be.
And why if
only...because while both Bashir al-Assad’s government forces and the rebel fighters
are 'supposed to be observing' the previously stated ceasefire...with
'supposed to be observing' having a totally different meaning than
actually 'observing'...neither side is doing so. And that means if the
two key factions involved will not observe the ceasefire then why should
or would the third side...Iran...observe the ceasefire either. And if this
simple agreement is not being honored what makes anyone think Iran
would honor an agreement supposedly made on the sly with their enemy
Israel.
And with al-Assad still
planning on moving forward with the previously stated soon to come
southern attack despite all warnings not to do so, Israel now has
made it clear to Iran that there's a strong possibility of direct
armed conflict between their two countries should Iran decide to send
either its troops or its Hezbollah proxy army to Syria's south in
order to have them take part in said fight...a fight which should only be
between al-Assad's forces and the rebels.
Also know that Israel sent this
message for one specific reason alone...to let Iran know that it would not
end well for them if they did choose to get involved. And that, when push
comes to shove, just might be why Iran could agree not to take part
in any government v. rebel battles in southern Syria especially if
Israel does agree not to participate in combat in that region as well.
And don't forget that as it
stands right now Bashir al-Assad still sees Iran's being in Syria as
a plus of sorts which might temper down any agreements reached
between Iran and Israel or Iran and Russia, because as long as
al-Assad wants Iran in Syria, Iran one way or another will stay in
Syria...unless Israel finally takes them out that is.
_____________________________
* Israel estimates there
are about 2,000 Iranian troops; almost 9,000 Shi'ite militias fighter from
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq; and another 7,000 members of
Hezbollah currently operating in Syria.
Copyright @ 2018 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved.
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For more political commentary please visit my RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS partner Craig Andresen's blog The National Patriot to read his latest article Reparations…The New Welfare
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