Op-ed:
Trump's Tax Truths By The Numbers
By: Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor /
Right Side Patriots on American Political Radio
He promised 'We the People' tax reform
during the campaign and as president, Donald Trump delivered, when on
Friday December 22, 2017 he signed the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act'
into law. A true Christmas president to the American
people...a Christmas present promised by others but never delivered.
And as expected the act was voted along
party lines...51 to 48 in the Senate and 224 to 201 in the House but
with 12 Republicans congressmen from the high-tax states of
California, New York and New Jersey joining all the Democrats in both
houses voting no. Claiming that taxpayers who itemize will be hurt by
the legislation's cuts to the state and local tax deduction, what the
naysayers failed to see is the overall positives of this new
law...positives as in a much needed simplification of our tax system;
the fact that billions of dollars of working capital and corporate
profits now in accounts outside the U.S. coupled with jobs will be
returning to our country; and the U.S. dollar will be greatly
strengthened.
But none of those positives matter to
the Democrats... Democrats led by the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck
Schummer...as tax cuts for 'We the People' means less monies they
will have to buy, barter, or make promises to illegals in exchange
for the votes.
Now let's touch upon but four key
grievances relating to the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' that Democrats are
up in arms about. And know these four are but many as Democrats will
always whine, stamp their feet, and never vote for anything the
Republicans propose no matter how much it benefits 'We the People.'
First out of the Democrats bag of
tricks comes their usual never ending rhetoric about how the Republican
tax cuts will raise both the national debt (also known as the public
debt) and the federal deficit. Claiming that the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act'
will raise the federal deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars
over the next decade, what they and so many others forget is that the deficit
itself allows for a shifting of numbers on paper. How so...because
with the deficit being just the difference between what the federal
government spends (outlays) and what it takes in (revenues) the
deficit becomes simply I.O.Us. of sorts and also but a small portion of
the annual federal revenues. And with the corresponding national
debt being the direct result of the federal
government borrowing
money to cover the many years of budget deficits...especially
the deficits created by eight long years of Obama's totally out of control
spending...it still is relatively easy to shift monies back and forth
between departments to skew the numbers with none the wiser.
A vicious cycle for sure but not
insurmountable for with the federal government having a central bank
of which to manipulate...if you will...the economy, the currency, and interest
rates, we still have more than enough tangible “treasure”
to allow, if not outright encourage, a shifting of those numbers...basically being financial
flexibility to deal with these I.O.U.s. However, what 'We the People'
are not privy to is the logistics of exactly how that numbers shifting is done,
especially since the feds have the right to actually issue new debt
and refinance old bonds at better terms and rates when the economy is
slowing and interest rates are falling. Amazing isn't it.
In other words, while a booming economy
is a good thing it's only a good thing as long as it's kept somewhat
in check by not allowing said debt to exceed the 'debt to GDP ratio'
(the total value of goods and services our economy produces). In
fact, in fiscal year 2016 with the GDP being $18.6 trillion and with
the interest we paid on said debt being $233 billion, which
translated into just 6.1% of the national budget, and with the
federal revenue being $6.13 trillion (as in the sum of individual
income taxes, business income taxes, and other tax revenues the feds
collect over a given year), the debt number was not just sustainable
but even manageable as we were not then nor are not now in the throes
of a financial crisis no matter what the Democrats or even some
Republicans say.
Remember, total revenue grows as the
GDP grows while in an economic downturn revenues logically decrease
becoming of key importance only when total revenues are compared to
government spending. For example, if government spending increases at
about the same rate as economic growth and if the 'total revenue to
GDP ratio' remains on an even level especially if the overall size of
the government stays about the same in proportion to its economic activity,
then all basically remains status quo.
However, if spending growth
outpaces increases in total revenues, the government will eventually
be forced to borrow more money, raise taxes or...heaven forbid...cut
their spending. But Trump's new tax law will help increase revenues
by bringing large corporations back to America which in turn will put
more people back to work and also afford folks to ability to keep
more of their income...income they will put back into purchases which
in turn directly feeds economic growth.
And so as long as the national debt
does not exceed the aforementioned 'debt to GDP ratio,' the debt in
and of itself...no matter it now being at an all time high of $20+
trillion...while not a desirable thing is not a terrible thing either
for there are some very important things most... especially the
Democrats...forget. Things like the fact that our country has been in
debt for over 200 years; that our currency system is a fiat system (as in a
currency without intrinsic value yet established as money by
government regulation); that the feds and the Treasury Department can
actually just
“create”...as in print...more money to pay
off our creditors if need be; and that rising public deficits (the
national debt) actually leads to growing private-sector surpluses.
“During the Clinton years we had a
budget surplus with correspondingly ballooning private debt. That
didn’t work out so well,” so said financial advisor and
author William Bernstein adding that the budget surplus played a big
role in not just one financial bubble but two... the stock market and
real estate crashes that led to the financial crisis of the George W.
Bush and Obama years.
Simply put, no matter words to the
contrary debt is not always a bad thing in regards to the private
sector. In fact, debt within the 3% to 4% range can actually be a
sign of a healthy economy because it means both employment and wages
are increasing and that the markets are stable. And while the Fed can
lower interest rates to make all-around investing easier, no on can
create economic activity out of a stagnant or sluggish economy. But
with the economy now truly growing and thriving under President
Trump's leadership and with the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act'
now signed into law, U.S. economic growth will only continue to
increase what with consumer confidence at a high unseen in years and
with the jobs market flourishing in spite of both a
budget deficit and more debt...and that is a very good thing.
So there goes the Democrats argument
against the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act'
based upon the national debt's argument.
Second, as for the naysayers argument
that this new law will see the highest income earners benefiting the most
while the lowest income earners and the middle class may actually
have to pay more in taxes once most of the individual tax provisions
expire after 2025...very simply... this is not true. And why...because the
only ones possibly seeing an eventual tax increase in 2025...and a
small one at that and only if the Republicans and Congress are
unsuccessful in making all tax cuts permanent by then...will be those in the $100 to $250 thousand
dollar per year tax range not...I repeat not...those Americans in the
middle class range. And said range is in no way the highest income
earners...those in the $100 to $250 thousand dollar per year tax range
not...I repeat not...those Americans in the middle class range. And
said range is in no way the highest income earners.
And what is middle class in today's
America...it's a range that encompasses 41.5% of all Americans...and
gauged by Pew Research as being households earning between 67% to 200% of an
individual state's median income. And neither will those in the
lower middle class range...being those whose annual personal income
ranges from about $32,500 to
$60,000...see a tax increase under the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.' That
is just a fact.
As
for the lowest wage earners...those earning no more than 199% of the
poverty level...as in those individuals earning between a minimum of
$11,490 and a maximum
of $22,865 dollars...they too
will see no tax increase. And a couple will not pay any income taxes
at all up to $24,000 a year.
So
there goes the Democrats argument that the middle class does not see
any tax relief for the fact is they will see tax relief to the tune
of about $1,610 per year which translates into a “bump”
of about 2.2% in their
average household's income. And high income earners...those in the
range of $400+ thousand per year...will rightfully receive tax cuts
too, but know that those income earners make up but 10% or less of
the American population. And those who earn $1 to $6 million make up
only 1% of the population with the highest wage earners making above
$6 million are but 0.1% of our population. And dare some forget that
it's these collective high income earners who both invest in and create the very
businesses that in turn create jobs and fuel economic growth.
Now
as far as what is deemed middle class in high-tax states like
California, New York, and New Jersey...it's not the federal taxes
that are hurting these folks but it's their overburdening state and
local taxes that are. Let those states “fix”
their own house before pointing fingers at others for their residents
woes.
Third, and while
it's true that corporations will see their corporate tax rate drop
from 35% to 21% that is a win-win for both the corporation itself and
for America herself as American companies overseas will start to
return to the states thus fueling competition and corporate expansion
which will lead to jobs being created that will be filled by American
workers. And for major companies already based in these United
States, they too will expand with jobs being created thanks to this
new competition. And with corporate profits as a result rising, much of
those monies will be funneled back into our economy via corporate
investments as well as seeing dividends going into the hands of
corporate shareholders...shareholders including the average American
who is saving for the future or who will now have additional monies
to make purchases they could not do before.
Sad that the
Democrats don't understand the basic principal that helping those who
create jobs helps our economy in return as well.
Fourth
and lastly, the Democrats refuse to accept as fact the 'Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act'
will indeed
strengthen the U.S. dollar. How so...with the corporate tax
rate dropping from 35% to 21% and with a reduction in tax on
dividends will see the U.S. overseas exchange rates becoming even more
attractive to investors and that in turn helps to strengthen the
dollar as investments are made. And simple logic dictates that in
turn the stock market will also benefit from higher after-tax profits
and strengthening economic activity which again helps to strengthen
the dollar. And not too be forgotten is the fact that when economic
growth increases also increased is the possibility of sustained
long-term growth. Also remember, any short-term stimulus to the
economy automatically boosts the dollars worth.
And when there is more money in both
corporate and consumer pockets an as expected boost in spending
occurs which in turn stimulates the economy thus automatically
increasing the purchasing power of the dollar. And such economic
growth would again attract foreign investment with the dollar gaining
strength as foreigners who had previously bought “greenbacks”
to purchase American assets would now do so.
But the bottom line is that
the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' is now the law of the land and it is the
first significant tax reform since Ronald Reagan was president. And
while it is yet another of Trump's campaign promises kept, it must be remembered
that the implementation of said law is equally as important for two
reasons. First, good tax reform should both simplify the current
complex and micromanaged economy and make it more efficient in its
running while at the same time assuring long-term economic growth,
which this tax law does while at the same time making it easier for Americans to
file their taxes. And second, good tax reform should also lower
marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which according to the
Tax Foundation's Taxes and Growth Model the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act'
does as well.
In fact, according this same model,
this act will see a 1.7% increase in the all-important GDP over the
long term; will also see a 1.5% increase in wages, and will add an
additional 339,000 full-time jobs to the work force. And wasn't that
the goal of tax reform all along...to help put Americans back to work
and more money in their pockets...and that money will start to be seen in less than a month's time. So to President Trump I
say kudos for tax reform well done.
Copyright @ 2018 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved.
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RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS...LIVE!
Today, Friday, January 5th from 7 to 9pm EST on American Political Radio, RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS Craig Andresen and Diane Sori discuss the truth about Trump's tax cuts from both a tangible and a snarky point of view; and important news of the day.
